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Thursday, May 22, 2014

EU migration closes gap on non-EU migration into UK

The ONS has this morning published another set of updated migration figures. As always they make interesting reading with respect to EU migration - many eyes are on the figures for Romanians and Bulgarians in particular.

As the graph above shows, net immigration from the EU increased from 82,000 in 2012 to 124,000 in 2013. While non-EU immigration still accounts for a larger share of the total, the gap has narrowed significantly recently. This jump in EU migration has not been driven by an increase in one particular group, inflows from EU 15, EU 8 and Bulgaria and Romania have all increased.

Looking a bit deeper, it’s clear that these different groups of migrants have very different reasons for moving to the UK. As the ONS graph above highlights, the number of non-EU migrants moving to the UK for work has fallen steadily while those from the EU, and EU 15 in particular, have increased quickly. Furthermore, as the graph below highlights, work related reasons dominate EU migration but non-EU migration is now mostly driven by studying or family migration.

Perhaps the most interesting figure from all of this data though is the sharp rise in the number of Bulgarians and Romanians applying for national insurance numbers in the year up to March 2014 – which jumped by 7,000 and 29,000 respectively.  This is over the past year, not in a single quarter, so broadly fits with the previously released figures (which we analysed here) which showed that 29,000 workers from these countries had moved to the UK in the past year. So there's a gap between people from these countries who got a NIN on the one hand and who are working on the other. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that the 7,000 who make up the difference are on benefits (as the periods don't necessarily overlap).

In any case, as the ONS itself points out, the overall impact of removing transitional controls will not be clear for some time, will full data for 2014 not out till mid-2015. Still, Ukip and others are likely to run with these figures.

1 comment:

Rik said...

1. From the stats it is clear that the problems (at least the direct ones) are from non-EU immigrants.
Huge influx but the workers part is negative.
It might not be totally similar to being a taxpayer or not but it will be close.

2. Hard to see that in one year time there are 100K more foreign students. Apparently a lot of them stay.

3. Join a bit different. The more recent and the closer the family (both point into the direction of less EU) the lower it normally will be. basically simply wait and see how this will play out.

4. Work related is not really the most important criterion. It is imho about how much taxes are paid. Which is a good criterion for how much they contribute.
Or for the big spenders how much is spent.
Which will also give a proper indication where they actually compete with Brits.
Nigel's Rumenian neighbour I (likely he as well) would see as a welcome addition. The Hydepark crowd one could well do without.
My guess is however a few Nigel's neighbours and a lot other ones.
Basically you want people on say around 1.5X average wages plus, get in and the others stay at home.