Will the new migration figures force the Tories to go one step further on free movement?

Where do migrants to the UK come from the EU or non EU?

David Cameron's hopes of getting back on the front foot on migration have been dealt a blow this morning - ONS figures show that immigration is up, and specifically immigration from the EU is up as well.

These figures are important for two reasons, firstly the timing - these figures come ahead of a much anticipated speech David Cameron is about to deliver on the whole subject. Secondly, the numbers when compared to two targets, firstly the Conservatives' 2010 manifesto migration target of "tens of thousands a year not hundreds of thousands." Secondly, the comparison to migration flows under Labour. Here are some of the headline figures:

• Total net long-term migration estimated to be 260,000 in the year ending June 2014 up from 182,000 in the previous 12 months.
• Total gross immigration of 583,000 in the year ending June 2014, a statistically significant increase from 502,000 in the previous 12 months.
• EU immigration up 45,000 and non-EU up 30,000.
• 32,000 Romanians and Bulgarians came to the UK up 11,000 and EU15 migration also up 10,000.
• Estimated employment of EU nationals resident in the UK was 16% higher in July to September 2014 compared to the same quarter in 2013.

Interestingly, while immigration is also up from the new EU member states, the longer term trend driving EU migration is that from the EU15.

So how will all this play out? Well as you can see from the ONS graph below EU migration is not the largest component in total UK migration. That non-EU migration also went up for the first time in a while is politically significant.

However, EU migration is a large portion. The fact it is not showing any sign of decreasing will fuel trust issues over both the EU and migration.

Politically, perhaps the most significant aspect here is that net migration to the UK is now higher than when Labour left office (but lower than the peak during the Labour government). Ukip and some media are already jumping on this. Ahead of the speech, there’s one key question:

Has the Tory leadership already ‘priced in’ today’s figures, or has this made a cap of some sort more likely? 

Dutch Foreign Minister provides food for thought ahead of Cameron-Rutte talks on EU reform

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will travel to London to meet David Cameron tomorrow and discuss various EU-related issues. Ahead of the visit, Dutch Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans gave an interesting keynote speech on Europe in Rotterdam yesterday - laying out a few issues Cameron and Rutte may discuss at their meeting.

Here are some key quotes from Timmermans's speech (the highlights of which we featured in our daily press summary today):

It would be an exaggeration to suggest that Europe without the EU would slide into war, but it would also be naive to think it would be better if everyone went their own way.

The idea that it would be in our interest to leave the Union strikes me as nonsense…But this does not mean that there are no drawbacks. European solidarity has a downside, and we should not try to conceal it. The government recognises this fact and is working with other member states to tackle the adverse effects of the free movement of persons, for example.

Sovereignty is a paper tiger. In today’s world, if you want to serve Dutch interests you need influence…But that does not mean giving the EU carte blanche to arrogate more powers to itself. The European Union needs to be modest and understand that there is no Union without the member states…The EU exists by the grace of the member states and their democratic institutions. The EU would do well to secure greater involvement in Brussels decision-making by those democratic institutions, governments and parliaments.

We are making proposals to bolster the role of national parliaments, and [we] favour a smaller European Commission focusing on core tasks. The system of yellow and red cards, which allows MPs in national parliaments to intervene, must be further strengthened. And the Commission mustn’t brush yellow cards aside. National MPs represent national voters and their involvement in the European debate is essential.

I am optimistic. Optimistic about Europe’s capacity to find a new direction. Optimistic about our ability to reform the EU so that it works for us all in an efficient and cost-effective manner...There is no need to rewrite the [EU] treaties. What we need is for the European Council, the European Parliament and the European Commission, shortly after the elections in May, to reach a political deal setting out what the EU’s priorities will be over the next five years, and in what areas the EU will refrain from activity, so that those areas can be left to the member states. 

We've stressed that the Netherlands is emerging as a 'thought leader' on EU reform. The line of the Dutch government is clear: European where necessary, national where possible.

Timmermans's latest speech illustrates that there is plenty of common ground for the UK and the Netherlands to work on. The one snag for Cameron, though, is the repeated Dutch opposition to EU treaty change - something which Cameron has said will be part of his renegotiation. Perhaps we will know more on the treaty change front after the visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel next week...