The new Eurobarometer is out. Here's what you won't find in the European Commission's press release

The latest Eurobarometer is out, and as per tradition, the European Commission does its best to spin the findings of a survey that, particularly since the eurozone crisis broke out, hardly makes for happy reading.

The press release accompanying the latest Eurobarometer carries the headline, "A greater dose of optimism", which is justified by the fact that "those saying they are optimistic about the EU's future outnumber those who say they are pessimistic in 19 out of 28 countries".

Now, here are a couple of findings from the same survey that you won't find in the European Commission's press release (but are available here):

• The number of those who "tend not to trust" the EU is again at 60% - a +3% increase from the previous survey. The total figure includes 83% of Cypriots (+19% from the previous survey), 80% of Greeks (-1%), 75% of Spaniards (+3%) and 71% of Portuguese (+13%). To be fair, the level of confidence in national governments/parliaments in these countries is even lower - but that shouldn't be of great consolation.

• On the question "do you feel a citizen of the EU?", a majority (62%) of respondents agree, although in three countries more people disagreed than agreed with this statement. That this includes the UK may not be a big surprise, but that Greece and Cyprus are on there as well shows how badly the crisis management has tarnished the EU's reputation.

• A relative majority of Europeans have a neutral image of the EU (39%, =), and the proportion of respondents for whom it conjures up a positive image continues to be just higher than the proportion for whom it is negative (30% positive, unchanged; 29% negative, unchanged). Again, in Greece, Cyprus, Spain and Portugal a majority (sometimes relative, sometimes absolute) of respondents have "a negative image" of the EU.

• Two-thirds of Europeans say that their voice does not count in the EU (67%), a 3-point increase taking this score to its highest level since autumn 2004 when the question was first asked. This proportion has increased almost continuously since spring 2009, from 53%. Only just over a quarter of respondents (28%, -3) agree that their voice counts in the EU.

• 49% of total respondents don't think the EU "makes the quality of life better in Europe", compared with 43% who think it does.

• On the euro, public opinion is hugely divided with only a 9% net approval rating - 51%, support it and 42% oppose it. In countries that are euro members approval stands at 62% (down 4% since Autumn 2012) but only at 29% in non-euro countries. 

What keeps the folks in Brussels and Berlin awake at night?

Possibly this graph - from our new report on the internal devaluation needed in the PIIGS for the euro to remain intact.

Source: Eurobarometer

It shows how trust in the EU amongst voters in the PIIGS has on average fallen from 55%  in 2001 to 25% in 2012, in the wake of EU-mandated cuts. On average, 66% of voters in these countries now mistrust the EU (up from 26% in 2001). And Spain still has half of its internal devaluation ahead of it (not to mention Greece). This won't be easy.

Trust in the EU at an all time low

Plenty for Barroso to contemplate

The European Commission has published the results of its latest Eurobarometer survey. Here are some interesting findings:

• Trust in the EU has, on average, reached an all-time low, now standing at 31% - a 3% decrease since autumn 2011. At the same time, the average level of trust in national governments and parliaments has increased, reaching 28% for both;

• Country-by-country results are equally worrying. Both in Greece and Spain, for instance, the level of trust in the respective governments has decreased since last autumn, and now stands at only 6% (down 2%) in Greece and 13% (down 3%) in Spain. Reflecting that these two countries still associate the EU with positives such as democracy - marking a break from recent authoritarian pasts - people still tend to trust the EU more than their national governments (hardly an achievement given the low levels). However, here's the worrying part if you sit in Brussels. In both countries, trust in the EU has dropped like a stone - and fallen to a much greater extent than trust in national governments. Only 19% of Greeks now trust the EU - down a full 10% in less than a year, while 21% of Spaniards, down 9%, say they "tend to trust" the EU; 

• This suggests that trust in the EU as a counter-balance to unpredictable national politics is starting to diminish. As we've argued repeatedly, a key deciding factor for the future of the euro will be if and when the tipping point occurs: when the Mediterranean countries start to associate the EU and/or the euro with outright pain and erosion of national self-determination.

• The traditional Eurobarometer question about whether a country has benefited or not from EU membership seems to be missing in the latest survey. It's only asked once a year (presumably to avoid too many bruised egos in Brussels) and so we hope that it will re-appear in the autumn 2012 edition.   

• Also interestingly, trust in the German government received a boost, increasing by 7% from the previous Eurobarometer. In the meantime, the number of Germans who "tend to trust" the EU remained unchanged at 30%, while the number of those who "tend not to trust" the EU rose to 61% - 4% higher than in autumn 2011;

• The average share of Europeans who think that the EU is "best able" to tackle the current economic crisis has decreased to 21%, down 23%, as big a share that think national governments are better placed. This question is pretty pointless though as it leaves what "taking effective action" (which is the exact formulation) completely open to interpretation. For example, if eurobonds are implied then you lose the Germans, while if EU-imposed austerity is implied you lose the Greeks.

Eurobarometer polls are always a mixed bag and are clearly, in large parts, driven by the Commission's political and ideological bias. But in so far as the questions are comparable over time, they can show some interesting, albeit worrying, trends.

Another day, another poll

While the eurozone crisis rumbles on, the mis-match between what the eurozone needs to survive (probably a full-blown fiscal union) and what citizens accept, is growing ever more conspicuous.

Therefore, we were a bit surprised when the we read the following headline in Friday's Die Welt: "Die Deutschen wollen mehr Europa" (Germans want more Europe). This was apparently the most eye-catching finding in a new opinion poll carried out by DeutschlandTREND for German TV station ARD. Some in the twittospehere and elsewhere interpreted this as endorsement by German citizens for more powers being transferred to the EU institutions.

Really?

As it turns out, the question didn't even mention the EU. Instead, respondents were asked whether they supported “more common policy making in Europe over the next few years” ("mehr gemeinsame Politik in Europa"), which can mean a whole range of things, including more inter-governmental cooperation for example. On this question , 64% answered "yes". It's still an interesting finding, but clearly not one that can be taken as a strong indicator of German public support for the transferral of more power to EU's institutions.

(We're not suggesting that there's anything sinister about the Die Welt's write-up of the poll - just a normal case of seeking to spice up a headline. Not like when the European Commission tried to have us believe that just because a majority of respondents to a Eurobarometer poll said that "stronger coordination of economic and financial policies among all EU member states" would be effective or fairly effective to combat the ongoing crisis, that therefore meant that a majority of EU citizens favoured "stronger European economic governance").

However, the DeutschlandTREND poll provides a number of other very interesting findings, which which seem to suggest that, if the eurozone moves towards fiscal union, it will probably do so with German citizens kicking and screaming. According to the poll, only 35% of Germans would accept even “limited” versions of Eurobonds, while 55% oppose them.


As in previous polls, the bailouts aren't popular either: 66% of Germans are opposed to the Bundestag approving an extended bailout fund:


At the same time, 53% of respondents say they oppose a “United States of Europe”, with only 42% in favour, which clearly qualifies the conclusion that Germans are in favour of "more Europe".

However, the most conspicuous expression of changing public sentiments over recent weeks comes from Finland. A poll out last week shows that 47% of Finns think the euro has done more good than harm. When that same question was asked in a Eurobarometer poll only one year ago, 71% said the euro had done more good than harm. Meanwhile, 49% of Finns are opposed to the Greek bailout, with 34% supporting it. It's hard to find a clearer illustration of the political cost of the bailouts and the eurozone crisis.

If it wasn't for that annoying thing called democracy...

Economic governance: a tale of two polls

A new poll published yesterday by the German Marshall Fund of the United States makes for interesting reading.

With a few exceptions, majorities in the eurozone countries said the euro has been a bad thing for their economy, including France (60%) and Germany (53%), but also Spain (53%) and Portugal (52%). Italians were divided on the benefits of the euro with 47% saying the euro has been good and 48% saying it has been bad for their economy. Only the Dutch (52%) and Slovaks (64%) had majorities saying the euro has been a good thing.

Unsurprisingly, a full 83% in the UK thought that using the euro would be a bad thing for the economy.

But perhaps just as interestingly, the poll found that a plurality of EU respondents (46%) believe that in dealing with the current economic crisis, each country’s national government should have primary responsibility. Roughly two-in-five EU respondents (39%) said that the EU should have primary responsibility for handling the current economic crisis.

Only in Germany did the majority (54%) agree that the EU should have the leading role in economic decision-making. The French were divided on the issue, with 47% saying the national government and 43% saying the EU should have the primary responsibility.

This certainly makes an interesting comparison with the Commission's recent claims that "75% of EU citizens want more European economic governance", based on a rather creative interpretation of its Eurobarometer survey, which we have debunked before. EUobserver notes that the results "sharply contradict" the European Commission's interpretation.

Respondents were only asked whether or not “a stronger coordination of economic and financial policies among all EU member states” would be effective to combat the ongoing crisis (see p. 38 here). The question didn’t even mention the role of the EU or the term “European economic governance”. The Commission got its 75 percent figure by adding up the respondents who thought that stronger coordination would be “very effective” (26 percent) and those who only thought it would be “fairly effective” (49 percent).

Herman Van Rompuy's taskforce clearly has a very difficult job on its hands if it's to convince people on the need for greater economic governance.

A classic example of EU spin

Here's an example of some good old EU spin for you:

The European Commission today announced the results from the latest Eurobarometer poll - carried out in May during the height of the crisis - with a press release carrying the headline,"EU citizens favour stronger European economic governance". 75 percent of Europeans, we are told by the press release, are in favour of giving the EU a stronger role in the coordination of member states' economic and budgetary policies.

EU Justice Commissioner Viviane Reding - who also is in charge of Communication - comments:

"The clear majority for enhanced European economic governance shows that people see the EU as a decisive part of the solution to the crisis".

Clearly, something fishy is going in here, not least since only 26 percent of people then go on to say that they consider the EU best placed to deal with the financial and economic crisis.

And sure enough, the Commission is trying to take us for a ride. Respondents to the Eurobarometer survey were only asked whether or not "a stronger coordination of economic and financial policies among all EU member states" would be effective to combat the ongoing crisis (see p. 38 here). The question doesn't even mention the role of the EU or the term "European economic governance". Creatively, the Commission then adds up the respondents who think that stronger coordination would be "very effective" (26 percent) and those who only find it "fairly effective" (49 percent) to reach the 75 percent figure.

Seriously, how stupid do they think we are? By no stretch of the imagination is this the same as 75 percent of Europeans being in favour of giving the EU more powers to monitor national economies, which the Commission is trying to make us believe in its press release.

The Eurobarometer could have asked this question instead: “Do you think that the EU should be given more powers to monitor your country’s economy, including decisions on public spending and taxation?” We suspect the result would have been completely different.

What the Commission really should be focussing on is the troubling fact that only 49 percent of respondents think that EU membership is "a good thing" down from 53 percent last year. Or that the percentage of people who think that EU membership is "a bad thing" has reached its highest level in a decade - now at 18 percent (see p. 12).

What's more, the percentage of people who think that EU membership is a good thing has decreased by 5 percent in France and the Netherlands, for example, and by a striking 10 percent in Germany (down to 50 percent) in only one year. Incidentally, these countries are all net contributors to the EU budget.

Is the Commission getting the hints? We hope so, but somehow doubt it.

Ps. If we were to use the same method as the Commission to support our claims, we could add up respondents who said that EU membership is "a bad thing" with those who said it is "neither good nor bad" (29 percent) to obtain a remarkable 47 percent of "EU non-enthusiasts".

Taxpayers to help EU sell the Lisbon Treaty

Labour and Lib Dem MPs last night backed a proposal to spend 88 million euros of taxpayer’s money on information campaigns, including support for the Lisbon Treaty.

'Communicating Europe in Partnership', includes the proposal to:

“launch a follow-up communication Plan D, as well as a new set of Plan D civil society projects, with the overall objective of supporting the ratification process for the Reform Treaty and the increasing participation in the 2009 European Parliament elections.”

It even suggests the "identification of aspects of school education where joint action at EU level could support Member States".

The Commission earnestly declares that "We need to empower citizens" in order to "promote active European citizenship".

It then goes on to make the astonishing assertion that:

"There is an underlying conviction amongst European citizens that our societies can only tackle today's challenges by working on a European scale. This shift in the purpose and focus of the EU thus fits well with the aspirations of citizens."

This notion is presumably derived from the notoriously skewed Eurobarometer polls - which invariably return exactly the 'right' result for the Commission (for more, see the Economist's excellent critique on Eurobarometer).

No surprise then that the Commission's document notes the imporance of "strategic" use of these surveys:

"The Commission will introduce innovations in the methods used by the Eurobarometer in response to the White Paper consultation to increase its ability to listen and respond to public opinion. The goal is to use surveys more strategically in relevant phases of the policy process"

The Commission apparently thinks it's acceptable to assign legitimacy to awarding itself more power on the basis of its own private polling. But if the transfer of powers to Brussels is rejected in a direct public vote which cannot be managed or controlled (as in Ireland, France or Holland), the result is apparently illegitimate.

Just a thought: instead of spending taxpayers' money trying to construct artificial legitimacy for its actions, perhaps the EU would 'engage with citizens' far better by ceasing to legislate in secret, publishing minutes of meetings, or perhaps paying attention to occassions when people actually get the chance to vote against further transfer of powers to unaccountable, distant institutions?

This won't cost a penny. But something tells us it won't be happening any time soon...