Italy election: Did a Bersani-Grillo alliance just become a real possibility?

Italy's centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani has just held his first post-election press conference. He's clearly not as good at soundbites as Beppe Grillo (or Berlusconi), but this is the gist of what he said:

The centre-left coalition is willing to "take its responsibilities" given that it got most seats in both houses of the Italian parliament;

He said of Beppe Grillo and the Five-Star Movement,

"They used to tell us to 'go home'. Now they're in [parliament] too. Italy is also their country. Let's see what they want to do for their country."

Crucially, Bersani said that, if asked to form the new government, he will put forward a "programme" - basically a to-do list for the next government, including changes to the electoral law, cuts to the cost of bureaucracy and politics in general and new policies for job creation to be discussed at the European level (whatever that means).

His line was that it's more important to "discuss what we want to do for this country" rather than wasting time on "diplomatic" exercises in an attempt to form a 'traditional' coalition.

And that sounds very similar to Grillo said earlier today, i.e. taking a policy-by-policy approach rather than going for a fixed coalition (as opposed to Berlusconi, who seems quite keen on a proper 'grand coalition'). So, could there be some sort of loose Bersani-Grillo alliance emerging?

Still early days...

Beppe as king-maker: will he, won't he?

Beppe Grillo is the man of the moment in Italy and Europe. He, and not Mario Monti as thought, commands enough seats in the Italian Senate to hold the balance of power. So the former Comedian, not the former European Commissioner, could be the king-maker.  But does he want to?

There are plenty of rumours coming our of Italy that Pier Luigi Bersani - whose centre-left coalition holds a solid majority in the lower house of the Italian parliament - is trying to court Grillo somehow. But Grillo may well continue to resist any formal coalition arrangements with other parties - after all that was his entire thing in the run-up to the elections.

Yesterday, he insisted on La Cosa, the Five-Star Movement official TV / radio online station, that he is not going to make inciuci, inciucetti, or inciucini -  Italian slang to describe backroom deals - with anyone.  

But only an hour ago he told journalists outside his house in Genoa,

We talk about programmes. We're not against the world. We'll see reform by reform, law by law. If there are proposals that fit with our programme, we'll consider them. 

So this seems to suggest that Grillo could be willing to offer occasional, case-by-case support in parliament - provided that the proposals on the table are in line with the Five-Star Movement manifesto. That's a very similar to minority government arrangements elsewhere, where individual parties are relied on to push through certain measures.

But even if such a deal between Bersani and Grillo can be struck, it isn't exactly a recipe for (eurozone) stability - not least given some of Grillo's actual economic policies.

We will be over Grillo like a cheap suit, so keep reading our blog and follow us on Twitter @OpenEurope or @LondonerVince for all the latest updates from Italy.

Shocker in Italy: A comedian-cum-politician wins twice as many seats as the 'Brussels candidate'

So we now have a pretty good idea of the election results in Italy. And there are two victims: eurozone stability and Mario Monti.

The winner: comedian-cum-politician Beppe Grillo. 

We knew from earlier today that there would be a hung Senate, meaning massive challenges ahead in forming a functioning government.

But what about the Lower House - Camera dei Deputati? Well, counting is almost completed so these projections of how seats will be allocated (courtesy of Rai) will most likely be very close to the final results. Bersani's centre-left coalition managed to secure a majority. The gap between Bersani's centre-left coalition and Berlusconi's centre-right coalition is around 0.4%, so the huge difference in seats is due to Italy's electoral system (which gives the coalition or party with the most votes an automatic majority of almost 54%). 

But this is the shocker: Beppe Grillo's Five-Star Movement - the party that came out of nowhere and whose leader wants to hold a referendum on both euro membership and the restructuring of the country's debt - looks set to become the largest party in the lower house, and the second-largest one in the Senate. This is exceeding all expectations (though we warned you!).

Grillo is going to win 110 seats, more than double those of  Mario Monti - the outgoing technocrat PM who was the clear favourite in Berlin and Brussels. Monti will only have 46 MPs at his disposal.

The scale of this defeat was pretty obvious at the press conference that Monti gave earlier today, in which he said he was "very satisfied" with the election results but was visibly emotional.

In contrast, a relaxed but triumphant Grillo chucked about "having another hot tea and then going to bed" when interviewed by 'La Cosa' - the Five Star Movement's official radio/TV station.

That so many Italians voted for anti-austerity parties also bodes ill for the ability of the eurozone to press ahead with its cash-for-discipline recipe. We will provide a more detailed analysis once the final results are in. But for now at least, there's no doubt about who's having the last laugh...

N.B.: The breakdown above does not include the 12 MPs elected by Italians residing abroad and the MP elected in the Valle d'Aosta region, who are subject to different rules - a small caveat which does not change the bigger picture.