EU migration closes gap on non-EU migration into UK

The ONS has this morning published another set of updated migration figures. As always they make interesting reading with respect to EU migration - many eyes are on the figures for Romanians and Bulgarians in particular.

As the graph above shows, net immigration from the EU increased from 82,000 in 2012 to 124,000 in 2013. While non-EU immigration still accounts for a larger share of the total, the gap has narrowed significantly recently. This jump in EU migration has not been driven by an increase in one particular group, inflows from EU 15, EU 8 and Bulgaria and Romania have all increased.

Looking a bit deeper, it’s clear that these different groups of migrants have very different reasons for moving to the UK. As the ONS graph above highlights, the number of non-EU migrants moving to the UK for work has fallen steadily while those from the EU, and EU 15 in particular, have increased quickly. Furthermore, as the graph below highlights, work related reasons dominate EU migration but non-EU migration is now mostly driven by studying or family migration.

Perhaps the most interesting figure from all of this data though is the sharp rise in the number of Bulgarians and Romanians applying for national insurance numbers in the year up to March 2014 – which jumped by 7,000 and 29,000 respectively.  This is over the past year, not in a single quarter, so broadly fits with the previously released figures (which we analysed here) which showed that 29,000 workers from these countries had moved to the UK in the past year. So there's a gap between people from these countries who got a NIN on the one hand and who are working on the other. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that the 7,000 who make up the difference are on benefits (as the periods don't necessarily overlap).

In any case, as the ONS itself points out, the overall impact of removing transitional controls will not be clear for some time, will full data for 2014 not out till mid-2015. Still, Ukip and others are likely to run with these figures.

The gates are open but so far no flood

Official data from Office of National Statistics published this morning shows that the number of workers from Bulgaria and Romania have dropped from 144,000 to 140,000 since transitional controls were lifted for workers from the two countries on 1 January 2014. As we said all along, not quite the opening of the floodgates that some had predicted.

Nevertheless, this still represents an increase of 29,000 workers from Bulgaria and Romania year-on-year. And the quarterly numbers do not present a full picture on which to judge any longer-term change or pattern.

More broadly, the data shows that, while coming from a low base, EU employment has driven quite a lot of the recent increase in employment. In total, the number of  employed in the UK has increased by 741,000 year-on-year. Migrants from the Central and Eastern European 'EU 8' countries only account for 2.3% of total UK employment but, over the past year, workers from these countries have accounted for 15.5% of the increase in UK employment (see graph below).

It remains to be seen whether these figures will have any effect on the political debate about migration in the UK, particulalry from the EU. Annual migration (rather than employment) figures released later this month (potentially on European election day) are expected to show that EU migrants from the EU will outnumber migrants from non-EU countries for the first time - which has the potential to be politically explosive.

Will the European Commission challenge Cameron's crack-down on EU migrants’ access to benefits?

We have just published a new flash analysis looking at David Cameron's plans to change the rules on EU migrants' access to benefits.

Here's a handy table (click to enlarge) summarising the key proposals, and whether they are likely to be deemed legal by the European Commission:

So whether the European Commission will  take the UK to court will very much depend on, how, exactly the measures are implemented. Interestingly, so far the Commission has stayed clear of openly saying the measures are illegal, and of course, the UK government will have sought to ground this with both its own lawyers and EU ones.

However, remember, the UK is already locked into an ongoing legal dispute with the Commission over the rights of EU migrants to access the UK’s ‘universalist’ welfare system. Cameron’s recent intervention signifies a definite hardening of tone and position in this dispute, and in response EU Social Affairs Commissioner Laszlo Andor has said that the UK risks being seen as a “nasty country.”

As we have said before (see here, here and here, for instance), we think the Commission has a tendency to be overly activist in this area. However,  the key issues here - which Cameron could have done a better job of expressing in his intervention -  is that the EU's complicated and outdated rules on access to welfare need a complete overhaul, something which the Austrians, Dutch and Germans have already signalled their support for.

What is proposed under 'Cameron's crackdown' on immigration - and is it compatible with EU law?

In a keynote speech on immigration, David Cameron has today announced a host of new measures designed to curb EU and non-EU immigrants' access to welfare benefits. With transitional controls on Romania and Bulgaria lapsing at the end of the year, the political debate on EU free movement in the UK has threatened to boil over.

We have consistently emphasised the benefits of free movement but we do recognise that there are genuine concerns regarding the impact large-scale immigration can have on public services, the lower-skilled section of the labour market and particular communities. It is also clear that there is real public concern about access to welfare systems, given the UK's particular circumstances: a free health service and a number of non-contributory benefits.

So what does Cameron propose? His speech addressed immigration in general but the measures he announced regarding EU migration in particular were the following:

To ensure people cannot claim benefits indefinitely, in early 2014 we will create a statutory presumption that after 6 months an EEA national can no longer retain their status as a job seeker or retained worker and continue to claim benefits, unless they can demonstrate they have actively sought work throughout that period and have a genuine chance of finding work....

...We will strengthen the test people have to pass to see if they are eligible to claim income related benefits – the Habitual Residence Test. There will be an increase in the number and stronger range and depth of questions asked...

 ...The Government will introduce an expectation on councils to introduce a local residency test in determining who should qualify for social housing. This would mean someone would have to live in an area for say 2 or 5 years before they could even go on the waiting list. This will stop someone from turning up and immediately gaining access to social housing. To ensure UK nationals are protected when they are moving for genuine reasons – for example for work or because of family breakdown – local authorities will have the ability to set exceptions (e.g. in relation to work mobility, armed services personnel, for people escaping domestic violence etc)...  

...Government wants to stop the expectation that our health service is free to the entire world and we will take new steps to ensure the NHS can claim back money that is owed for NHS treatment provided to those not entitled to it. 

So this is addressing the so-called "pull factors". Now these are all things that the Government thinks it can do within the existing limits of EU free movement law - but the European Commission has already launched legal proceedings against the UK for its 'right to reside' test and you can count on the Commission to scrutinise any new proposals closely. The fact that so much of this is already considered possible begs the question of why the UK hasn't done it earlier.

Cameron also explicitly mentioned two areas where the UK will seek to renegotiate the rules at the EU-level:

We are also going to take forward negotiations with European partners to explore whether we can make economically inactive migrants the responsibility of their home country before they gain any eligibility for UK benefits.

And also whether we can work with like-minded European partners to limit the amount we pay in child benefit towards the upkeep of children living abroad.

The UK is likely to find allies on these two issues among the Northern countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, but whether there will be a majority in the EU to make these changes is unclear at this stage.

Let's tone it down a notch: Comparing the UK and German debates on EU migration

No one picking up a UK paper will have failed to notice that there is some concern over EU migration on the British isles, with the debate being triggered by the end of so-called "transitional controls" for Romanian and Bulgarian workers (the countries joined in 2007).

As we've argued repeatedly, EU free movement has on the whole been beneficial for both Europe and the UK, but the issue must be handled with much care, given its exceptionally sensitive nature and the practical impact it can have on public services and certain sectors of the labour market.

But there's also a false perception in the UK that all of Europe wants to come to Britain to enjoy its superior welfare system. This is far from the truth and secondly, the UK isn't the only country that has concerns over EU migration. It is, however, the country in which the debate is the most hysterical. Philip Collins looks at this in today's Times.

Speaking in Parliament earlier this week, Work and Pensions Secretary Ian Duncan Smith said there was a “crisis” over rules on EU migrants’ access to services and welfare, particularly in light of the expiry of transitional controls on migrants from Bulgaria and Romania at the end of the year. The issue definitely needs to be looked at, and there are several things the UK needs to do (see here). The Commission also needs get its act together and drop its own-goal challenge against the UK's "right to reside" test - the test is a political hugely important filter to guard against welfare abuse. But crisis?

Duncan Smith did, however, rightly point out that other EU member states shared some of the UK’s concerns, specifically that “Germany has woken up at last to the reality that it might face a large net migration”.

So what is the nature of the corresponding debate in Germany? Well, there's a genuine concern. A recent position paper by the German Association of Cities generated a lot of coverage as it focused specifically on so-called ‘poverty migration’ from Bulgaria and Romania, particularly those from a Roma background. The report warned that these migrants arrived in cities already affected by relatively high unemployment and with severely stretched public finances, and that despite the transitional controls in place, migration from Bulgaria and Romania had increased six-fold since 2006.

In terms of the public response, German Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) recently warned that:

“Abuse of free movement could be explosive for European solidarity. If people in Germany feel that their solidarity and openness is being abused and our welfare system is looted then there will be legitimate anger. The message for the EU Commission is clear: Brussels has to take stronger account of situation of the local population in its decision making process.” 

Justice Minister Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger (FDP) has also stressed that "Many Roma flee their homes because of discrimination and resulting poverty… Poverty-related migration must be addressed at its roots." Germany has also said it might veto Bulgaria and Romania’s entry to the border-free Schengen zone, which the UK is not part of.

Clearly, Germany could be an ally for the UK in terms of instituting clearer and more transparent rules on EU wide migration and access to welfare which are necessary to restore public confidence in free movement, as we’ve argued in our report on the subject.

However, on the whole, the debate in Germany has been far more measured than in the UK, with substantially fewer scare-stories on the subject from the press and politicians. For example, the often sensationalist Bild ran a feature on Roma migration earlier this week which was relatively balanced, stating that “there has been no mass immigration” and that migrants tend to seek employment, not benefits.

And that's what UK politicians and media need to remember: the overwhelming evidence suggests EU migrants come to Britain to work, not take advantage of the system.

Upside down

Private Eye highlights one of the EU's many contradictions:

Under the rules of the EU's grandly named 3rd Anti-Money Laundering and Counter Financing of Terrorism Directive (directive 2005/60/EC), the UK's Financial Services Authority is now obliged to examine the personal details of those connected to religious and charitable organisations on the pretext that they may be plotting terrorist activities, and has sent a demand for the information, warning that "non-compliance of regulatory obligations" would be "serious".

Meanwhile, EU bosses have offered €11bn in aid to the Bulgarian government - despite widespread reports of corruption and money laundering in the country, and despite Bulgaria's failure to identify the source of crime when it joined the EU last year.

Criminal gangs are now so rife that the Bulgarian MP Atanas Atanasov, a former counter-intelligence chief, has commentedL "Other countries have the mafia. In Bulgaria, the mafia has the country."

Once Byrned, twice shy

Just got back from a Fabian Society conference on "making EU enlargement work." The event turned into a bit of a love-in for good old Geoff Hoon. The acting head of the Romanian Embassy Raduta Matache declared "If only there were more ministers like Geoff Hoon". Well, he does need all the loving he can get at the moment.

But Hoon wasn't generous enough to share the love with his own governmental colleagues. When asked about the new system for "managing" migration from Bulgaria and Romania he mumbled something about the "transitional problems" of the last accession and likened them to the experiences of provincial towns which have been flooded with students in recent years.

Tellingly, he refused to publicly support the limits that have been placed on Bulgarian and Romanian workers instead saying, "I see [Immigration Minister] Liam Byrne is speaking this afternoon - perhaps you should ask him about that." According to one insider Geoff and Liam had "stand-up rows" over the issue... Hoon is obviously still feeling a wee bit sensitive about it.