EU migration closes gap on non-EU migration into UK

The ONS has this morning published another set of updated migration figures. As always they make interesting reading with respect to EU migration - many eyes are on the figures for Romanians and Bulgarians in particular.

As the graph above shows, net immigration from the EU increased from 82,000 in 2012 to 124,000 in 2013. While non-EU immigration still accounts for a larger share of the total, the gap has narrowed significantly recently. This jump in EU migration has not been driven by an increase in one particular group, inflows from EU 15, EU 8 and Bulgaria and Romania have all increased.

Looking a bit deeper, it’s clear that these different groups of migrants have very different reasons for moving to the UK. As the ONS graph above highlights, the number of non-EU migrants moving to the UK for work has fallen steadily while those from the EU, and EU 15 in particular, have increased quickly. Furthermore, as the graph below highlights, work related reasons dominate EU migration but non-EU migration is now mostly driven by studying or family migration.

Perhaps the most interesting figure from all of this data though is the sharp rise in the number of Bulgarians and Romanians applying for national insurance numbers in the year up to March 2014 – which jumped by 7,000 and 29,000 respectively.  This is over the past year, not in a single quarter, so broadly fits with the previously released figures (which we analysed here) which showed that 29,000 workers from these countries had moved to the UK in the past year. So there's a gap between people from these countries who got a NIN on the one hand and who are working on the other. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that the 7,000 who make up the difference are on benefits (as the periods don't necessarily overlap).

In any case, as the ONS itself points out, the overall impact of removing transitional controls will not be clear for some time, will full data for 2014 not out till mid-2015. Still, Ukip and others are likely to run with these figures.

See you in Court? UK-Spanish dispute over Gibraltar rumbles on

The HMS Westminster leaving Portsmouth for Gibraltar

A week on there appears to have been no progress on the Gibraltar front - the Gibraltarian authorities are still not budging over the artificial reef, the Spanish are maintaining their additional burdensome controls and the UK is still "considering" a legal challenge under EU law.

As we have argued, neither a challenge on free movement rules nor one on "proportional" border checks carries a guarantee of success due to the ambiguity of EU law. Equally, the Spanish feel they have a strong legal case against the artificial reef based on the very specific wording of the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht - meaning a retaliatory case is not out of the question.

An alternative could be an individual or collective challenge by Gibraltarians (or even Spaniards working in Gibraltar) to the Strasbourg-based European Court of Human Rights, but that could take a long time.

Since then, tensions have escalated with the dispatching of several Royal Navy vessels to Gibraltar (reportedly as part of a long planned manoeuvre) and claims in the Spanish media that the country could from a united diplomatic front with Argentina, which of course has its own axe to grind with the UK. Although we think a diplomatic solution is still the most likely outcome, if none of the sides are willing to back down the UK may be forced to actually initiate legal proceedings, most likely under a 'fast-track' arrangement, as it will by then not have many other practical options.

While initiating a legal challenge may itself force all the sides to resume negotiations, should Madrid still not back down and should the ECJ rule in its favour, this dispute may have more fundamental repercussions on the UK's future in the EU.

Between a rock and a hard place: Is Spain breaching EU law by making life difficult for Gibraltarians?

The 'Gibraltar question' has consistently been the biggest bone of contention in UK-Spanish relations ever since the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht which saw the territory permanently ceded to Britain. Although the issue never goes away, every now and then it flares up, and the decision by the Gibraltar authorities to construct an artificial reef - to prevent alleged incursions from Spanish fishing vessels - has been the latest trigger.

The Spanish authorities do have the scope to make life difficult for the Rock's inhabitants, and Spanish Foreign Minister García-Margallo has commented that this time, "the party is over". Madrid has already introduced stringent border checks on people travelling in and out of the territory - resulting in up to seven hour queues on the border (in stifling heat) - and further actions have been threatened, including €50 levy on cars entering and leaving the territory, as well as a tax crackdown on Gibraltarians who live on the Spanish side of the border.

Leaving aside the question of whether this is even in Spain's own interest given its own economic problems (thousands of Spanish citizens work in Gibraltar), are these types of measures - particularly the levy - even permitted under EU free movement rules? EU law prohibits discrimination against citizens of other member states when it comes to free movement, and the UK has indicated it could issue a legal challenge.

So does the UK have a good case? Article 45 of the EU Treaties which establish the principle of free movement states that:

2. Such freedom of movement shall entail the abolition of any discrimination based on nationality between workers of the Member States as regards employment, remuneration and other conditions of work and employment. 

3. It shall entail the right, subject to limitations justified on grounds of public policy, public security or public health: 
(a) to accept offers of employment actually made; 
(b) to move freely within the territory of Member States for this purpose; 

Discrimination is clearly prohibited for the purposes of employment, as is the ability to "move freely" within member states for this purpose, although exemptions for "public policy" and "public security" are quite vague. However, the right to free movement covers the right to live and work in another member state, it does not address the more specific issue of travelling between two member states for this purpose.

The UK and/or the Gibralterian authorities could however argue that the burdensome checks are a de facto impediment to the ability of British and Spanish citizens to exercise their right to work in another member state (i.e. on the other side of the border) and are therefore illegal under EU law. This is particularly true as the restrictions would not apply to the other border crossings, such as the Portuguese or French ones, although the Spanish could counter that the levy would be no different to localised toll roads or charges.

On the border crossing issue, EU member states are still allowed to police their own external borders, but internal border controls have been abolished in the Schengen area of which the UK is not a part. Therefore, Spanish authorities have the right to impose border controls, but according to a Commission source they have to be "proportional".

In other words, we have absolutely no idea whether the UK would be successful should it take Spain to the ECJ. The wonders of EU law...