The Independent getting excited but do 100 Tory MPs really want to leave the EU no matter what?

The UK media has an insatiable appetite for ‘Tories split’ stories on Europe – mainly we suspect because it makes for an attention-grabbing headline - and Douglas Carswell’s defection is Christmas come early for many. True, the defection is a big deal which could have even bigger implications so fair enough.

However, off the back of his move, there are now far less credible stories cropping up. As OE Director Mats Persson argued on his Telegraph blog back in January:

 “There's a vicious circle at play here. The UK media never seems to get tired of Tory split stories. It only takes a handful of vocal backbench MPs to create a “Tory rebellion” headline. English being the lingua franca, European politicians and commentators read the UK press, drawing the conclusion that, this is really all about a party talking to itself about itself. The many good reform ideas coming out of the UK are dismissed as a matter of “domestic politics” – an image happily (sometimes dishonestly) conveyed by a whole host of special interests, including those who have invested personal prestige in the EU project and seek to maintain the status quo. Cameron, meanwhile, is seen as an unreliable partner, not in control at home. This perception is then fed back to the UK press, as a sign that Cameron is “isolated”, in turn hardening backbench opinion.” 

A prime example is today’s Independent front-page, celebrating that “Up to 100 MPs will call EU exit regardless of concessions won by PM”. So one third of the Tory Parliamentary Party has already made up its mind on the EU? That’s a big claim. Cameron might as well throw in the towel now. It’s an over-cooked story, of course, as is usually the case, quoting exactly the same Tory MPs who have been quoted in stories like this since Magna Carta. The big headline number comes from “other eurosceptics” (hmmmm) who “predicted” that “between 50 and 100 Conservative MPs would make the same pledge” [out of the EU no matter what]. In other words, the number is plucked straight out of thin air.

There will no doubt be pressure on Tory MPs to clarify their position, but to go for “out no matter what” is a whole matter entirely. Still, this story will make it into embassy press clippings around Europe, and will probably also be re-produced in some foreign papers (100 is an impressive and conveniently round number). And voila, it has taken a life of its own. The Independent prides itself on taking “seriously our responsibility to maintain high editorial standards.” Well, we’re not impressed.

Douglas Carswell defects to UKIP: A Clacton by election could change the general election result

Douglas Carswell was until this morning the Conservative MP for Clacton on the Essex coast. He has now resigned from the Conservative party, joined UKIP, and says he will resign his seat in order to contest it as a UKIP candidate in the resulting by-election.

His resignation is not a total surprise as it follows a long period as a critic of the Conservative Party's direction and of David Cameron in particular. Carswell's criticisms are not limited to the Conservatives and not limited to Europe - he has developed a critique of British politics generally -  but Europe is among his key complaints.

In his resignation speech Carswell questioned David Cameron's commitment to EU reform accusing him of aiming to do the bear minimum necessary in order to secure an 'in' vote, while Carswell's view of a satisfactory renegotiation seems more akin to associate membership. He says this is a classic example the political class not being straight with the electorate and his reason to quit. The Conservative leadership for their part will feel aggrieved that having set out a 2017 referendum on EU membership they are rewarded with Carswell's 'ingratitude' - recriminations will run and run.

Carswell prides himself on having a large following locally and Clacton itself, it has been argued, is  the "number one most demographically favourable seat in the country for UKIP" according to Goodwin and Ford's Revolt on the Right. He therefore has a fighting chance of winning the seat. So what could happen?

Firstly, it is unclear whether the Conservatives will allow the by election to go ahead - they have to approve the writ being moved and could argue that with an election already scheduled the people of Clacton can wait until May 2015. However, if it is called, the stakes could not be higher.

For the Conservatives to hope to win the 2015 general election they need to minimise the UKIP vote. The best way to do this is the classic 'squeeze'. In a first past the post election they will say there is no point voting for a third placed party - i.e UKIP. This will be very effective. However Carswell's by-election could change voter's calculations - and set a hugely important electoral precedent one way or another:

• If Carswell wins, UKIP can then tell voters everywhere that voting UKIP gives a genuine change of producing an MP. This could be catastrophic for the Conservatives and may deprive them of a number of seats, to other parties mostly, but conceivably to UKIP as well.
• If Carswell loses, the result will be equally disastrous for UKIP. The Conservatives can use it to show that even in one of UKIP's best constituencies with one of their biggest names they can not win a seat - so why waste your vote in May 2015 will be the refrain.

UKIP does not just take votes from the Conservatives, they also gain a lot of their support from Labour, non-voters and even the Lib Dems. However, Carswell by taking on his former party will polarise the debate again into Conservatives/UKIP, something perhaps both parties may wish to avoid. This could be a foretaste of 2015.

In any case, a Labour victory would most likely mean that the In/Out EU referendum Cameron has promised won't happen, as Ed Miliband looks determined to stick to his promise not to offer a straight vote. It would be a tremendous irony if Carswell's defection - Carswell, remember, having campaigned tirelessly for an EU referendum and more direct democracy - would in the end deny the UK public an EU referendum and more direct democracy.

Your new man in Brussels

The UK will soon have a new man in Brussels - Jon Cunliffe who will take over from Kim Darroch - to represent the country in the endless behind-the-scenes negotiations that form the backbone of EU decision-making.

In the Mail on Sunday James Forsyth commented:

...it is encouraging that David Cameron is about to make the tough- as-teak Jon Cunliffe Britain’s new ambassador to the EU.

Intriguingly, Cameron is appointing someone who has never worked in the Foreign Office.

Cunliffe is not your typical Sir Humphrey. He didn’t go to Oxbridge and took his economics degree at night-school. Even more unusually, he enjoys saying No to foreigners.

But Douglas Carswell isn't impressed. On his blog, he writes:

Predictably, the spin behind Cunliffe’s appointment is that he is “tough as teak”, a man who likes saying “no” to foreigners. Those who brief the press attach great importance to the fact he’s not from the overtly federalist Foreign Office.

Yet the idea Cunliffe’s appointment means a change of approach is balls. If anything, it confirms that it’ll be EU business as usual.

It was Cunliffe who negotiated the Stabilisation Mechanism deal leading to the ECOFIN meeting in May, whereby Britain accepted enormous liabilities to try to prop up the Euro. He thereby managed to make us part of the Euro debt union, if not the currency union.

What's clear is that the importance of this position - the UK's Permanent Represenative to the EU - hardly can be overestimated...