What does Wilders' defeat in Dutch euro elections mean?

For various reasons that we don’t quite understand, most of the UK press has deemed it illegal to report on the exit polls from yesterday’s European elections in the Netherlands - with the exception of the Telegraph and the Guardian. The Netherlands is the only country to conduct exit polls ahead of Sunday night (10pm GMT roughly) when the results from all 28 EU countries are announced.

Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) took a clear a beating. If the exit polls stand, the party will have dropped from 17% in 2009 to 12.2% this time around, translating into a loss of 1 seat (the PVV had 5 seats in the last parliament but one MEP defected). This is no doubt an unexpectedly bad result for Wilders.

Source: Ipsos

Wilders’ defeat has given rise to a hilarious conspiracy theory in Brussels that the UK media isn't reporting on the Dutch elections since the result doesn't conform to its alleged anti-EU bias. Apart from the fact that the BBC and others genuinely worry about breaking the law (even though it’s a ridiculous law) this is also a wrong reading of the results.

Wilders screwed up. His controversial comments about Moroccan immigrants caused him real damage. Three of his four sitting MEPs even refused to campaign as a result. But to see this as a victory for the EU status quo in the Netherlands is pretty heroic.

- The strongly Eurosceptic Socialist party gained an extra 3% of the vote, translating into 1 extra seat, which sees it overtake the established centre-left PvdA. Together with the PVV, these strongly EU-critical parties are set to win 22.2% of the vote.

- While it's difficult to know what to read into this result, the parties that we've dubbed “critical reformers” have done relatively well. Prime Minister Mark Rutte's VVD party maintained a respectable share at 12.3%, despite leading an unpopular government, while the Christian Union/SGP increased its share by a percentage point. 

- The two biggest victors are the D66 liberals and the CDA, which are vying for first place on just over 15% of the vote. These parties are clearly pro-EU - and D66 is doing a lot of good work in the EP - however, please do resist the temptation to see this as an endorsement for more EU integration. Firstly, the D66, the great winner of this election, called on a freeze for transfer of powers just before the election, prompting Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans to post on his facebook page "D66 is suddenly also 'very euro critical'". Meanwhile, the CDA vote of 15% is down nearly 5% on its 2009 vote. It would be just as plausible to see the D66 and CDA vote as anti-incumbent vote against the PvdA-VVD coalition government.

- Lastly, turnout in the Netherlands remained stable, but at an incredibly low 37%. With Europe so much more in the headlines over the last few years and the Lisbon Treaty giving MEPs more powers, why in the world hasn't turnout gone up dramatically if it's true that more EP powers and greater awareness will lead to greater voter engagement?

These results certainly present a mixed picture. Wilders' failure to translate his polling into votes is notable but whether this pattern will be repeated elsewhere (in France, for example) remains to be seen - and probably has much to do how badly his campaign went.

Irony alert: Farage could be the biggest loser if Le Pen and Wilders manage to form a new anti-EU group in the European Parliament

Belonging to a group in the European Parliament matters. Groups receive money on top of individual MEPs' allowances and are given additional group staff. It also boosts chances of representation on committees (where EU laws are discussed and amended before they are put to a vote in the plenary).

Therefore, the prospect of Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's Front National (FN) and Geert Wilders, the leader of the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), forming a new anti-immigration, anti-EU group in the next European Parliament is causing some distress around Europe. When this was last attempted - with the so-called Identity, Tradition, Sovereignty (ITS) group - it quickly fell apart. The Greater Romania Party (PRM) didn't quite approve of Alessandra Mussolini - the granddaughter of you-know-who - labelling Romanians "habitual law-breakers" and thus withdrew from the group. Rather telling.

So will Wilders and Le Pen succeed to unite parties that, per definition, don't always like each other? According to EU rules, 25 MEPs from at least a quarter (seven) EU member states are needed to form a group.

By our count, at least four more parties from as many EU countries look willing to join forces with FN and PVV: Italy's Lega Nord (who currently sits in the same group as UKIP), Belgium's Vlaams Belang, the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) and the Sweden Democrats (whose leader today said they are considering joining). This leaves FN and PVV only one party and country short.

This could be filled by, for example, the Slovak National Party (SNS) - which is pretty hardcore, and currently sits with UKIP. Bulgaria's Ataka would probably also be quite keen to join, though Le Pen recently called the party "the real extreme right" (not meaning it favourably). Greater Romania may struggle to reach the 5% national threshold needed to win seats in the European Parliament, but could be another possibility.

The Danish People's party has said it won't join the group, while Greece's Golden Dawn and Hungary's Jobbik seem to be off-limits for everyone.

So this might come down to the wires. An interesting twist, though: if Le Pen/Wilders succeed, this could mean problems for Farage. UKIP currently sits in the Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) group - which includes 31 MEPs from twelve different countries, but:

• Farage could lose several MEPs from Italy, with Lega Nord joining FN and PVV, and the other Italian, Magdi Cristiano Allam, standing for re-election with a different party (Fratelli d'Italia);
• The Slovak National Party might join the Le Pen/Wilders group in the end;
• The (True) Finns are talking to the European Conservatives and Reformist (ECR) group, where the UK Conservative Party sits;
• The two Greek MEPs in UKIP's group are from LAOS - a party which is currently polling below the national threshold of 3%. This means their re-election is not certain;
• In addition, seven out of twelve EU countries in UKIP's group are currently represented by only one MEP.

So Farage could need both new parties, additional MEPs and more countries to be able to set a group after May's European elections. And if not managing a group of his own, where will he go? Will he reconsider his decision not to join forces with Marine Le Pen, something he ruled out in the past  when he said UKIP and FN are from "completely different political traditions and background"?

What is clear is that the formation of political groupings in the European Parliament will be a messy affair - and then we haven't even begun to discuss the ECR...