Slovenia fights back - but maybe it's a few months too late?

Gone but not yet forgotten

The European Parliament and the political machines that dominate it were, according to many, not supposed to select the President of the European Commission - but they got their man. MEPs, led by Spitzenkandidaten Martin Schultz and Jean-Claude Juncker outplayed the member states through a clever use of ambiguous treaty wording and a political deal, which in turn was driven by pure German domestic politics.

Having installed Juncker as Commission President MEPs took the individual candidates, nominated by the member states, to task. According to the Treaties, the EP can accept or reject the entire Commission, but MEPs have turned this into de facto votes on individual Commissioners, with intra-EP politics meaning some nominees may be taken 'hostage'. Having called back the UK's Lord Hill for a second hearing - creating jitters in Downing Street - MEPs finally voted down Slovenian candidate Alenka Bratušek. She was today forced to resign - despite Juncker himself insisting on her candidacy. MEPs seemed to have made their point - it has voted down individual nominees in the past, and as we predicted, the EP was bound to claim a scalp. 

MEPs now seem to be pushing their luck further - attempting to tell the Slovenian Government who they should appoint as their new candidate, with both the EPP and S&D calling for the nomination to go to social-democrat MEP Tanja Fajon. Slovenia, however, is pushing back. The country's PM has issued a statement saying:

"The Slovenian Prime Minister expects political groups in the European Parliament to abide by EU law and the fundamental democratic principle in selecting candidates for commissioners" 

In other words, the Slovenians say, this is for their Government - not MEPs - to decide.

Will MEPs stand back? We will see. To be fair, Slovenia has a new government and we can't blame it for events over the least few months. But we can't help asking, isn't this exactly what member states were asking for when agreeing to the Spitzenkandidaten in the first place?

Meet Podemos, the great newcomer of the European elections

The European Parliament elections have dealt a blow to Spain's traditional two-party system. Together, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's Partido Popular (PP) and the opposition Socialist Party (PSOE) won 49% of votes. In 2009, their combined score was 80.9%. No wonder Socialist leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba has decided to step down following his party's poor showing.

But the big story coming out of Spanish ballot boxes is the success of Podemos (We Can), a new left-wing, anti-austerity movement that came from nowhere to become Spain's fourth largest party and win five seats in the new European Parliament.

And 'nowhere' really means 'nowhere' in this case. Podemos was officially registered as a political party in March 2014 - which makes its performance extraordinary. Its leader, 35-year-old Pablo Iglesias (see picture), is a Political Science professor but also a bit of a TV star in Spain. Interestingly, his parents called him Pablo so their son could bear the same name as Pablo Iglesias, the founder of the Spanish Socialist Party.

Factoids apart, we have been flicking through Podemos's European elections manifesto. The following bits give a good feel for what Podemos stands for in a number of policy areas:

• "Citizens' audit of public and private debt to find out what parts of it can be considered as illegitimate...and declare that those won't be paid back."

• "Creation of democratic and parliamentary control mechanisms for the European Central Bank...Creation of a European public credit rating agency."

• "Regain public control over strategic sectors of the economy: telecommunications, energy, food, transport, health, pharmaceutical and education."

• "Budgetary support for and increased development of public R&D centres, in order to favour the return of Spanish researchers and scientists from abroad."

• "Right to a basic income for each and every citizen, for the mere fact of being citizens" - which sounds a lot like the 'citizenship wage' advocated by the Five-Star Movement in Italy.

• "A moratorium on mortgage arrears for the first houses of families with difficulties in paying their loans back."

• "Increase the EU's social budget, and establish a levy on capital movements within its boundaries" - which basically means saying adiós to free movement of capital. Podemos also calls for a "bigger levy" on movements of capital from the EU to third countries.

• "Establishment of trade agreements among small producers in Southern European countries. Development of specific cooperation mechanisms among Southern European countries." On the other hand, Podemos wants to "abandon" negotiations over the EU-US free trade agreement (TTIP), and calls for a "substantial revision" of the existing EU-Latin America free trade deals.

• "A derogation from the Lisbon Treaty so that public services are exempted from the competition principle." 

• "Stop the use of Memoranda of Understanding" - which set out the conditions attached to EU-IMF bailout loans to struggling eurozone countries.

Call it left-wing, anti-establishment, anti-austerity (but clearly not anti-EU), the rise of Podemos is significant because - similar to what the Five-Star Movement has done in Italy - it can give Spaniards a channel through which they can voice their dissatisfaction with the political establishment (and the current eurozone economic policies), something which has been lacking at the peak of the eurozone crisis.

In an interview with today's El Mundo, Pablo Iglesias has refused to reveal whether he and his movement will stand in next year's Spanish general election. For now, though, it seems Beppe Grillo may just have found someone to work with in the new European Parliament.

Anti-system MEPs surge in the European Parliament: how will EU leaders respond?

Open Europe has today responded to the preliminary 2014 European Parliament elections results. Please note that these figures are based on a combination of final results and some projections so could still be subject to change. However, we do not consider any substantial swings likely.

Here are the key points:

• Share of anti-EU and anti-establishment vote is slightly higher than expected with such parties collectively on course to win 229 out of 751 seats in the new European Parliament (30.5%), up from 164 out of 766 seats in the current parliament (21.4%).
• European Parliament politics are set to become more unpredictable though the anti-EU and anti-establishment block remains incoherent and the two main groups will continue to dominate.
• The share of MEPs dedicated to free market policies drops, from 32% to 28.1%.
• Compared to 2009, overall turnout stayed flat despite more powers for MEPs in the Lisbon Treaty and the EU becoming a high-profile issue in the wake of the Eurozone crisis.
• Several anti-incumbent parties in the EP for the first time, ranging from Feminist Initiative in Sweden to Spain’s new leftist movement Podemos, founded as late as March 2014.

 The rise of anti-EU and protest parties on the left and right will make European politics more unpredictable but, paradoxically, it could also strengthen the resolve of the three mainstream groups to continue to vote for more Europe in the European Parliament, in order to freeze out the anti-EU contingent (click on the pictures to enlarge).

The temptation in Brussels and national capitals will be to view this as the peak of anti-EU sentiment as the eurozone crisis calms down and the economy improves. This would be a huge gamble. The make-up and reasons for the rise of these parties are complex, but it’s clear that the best way to cut off their oxygen is to show that the EU can reform itself and respond to voters. These elections are a clear warning: offer voters a polarised choice between more Europe and no Europe and sooner or later they will choose the latter.

David Cameron now faces a seriously tricky week. He has two main challenges. First, he will try to muster enough allies to block Jean-Claude Juncker, the front-runner for European Commission President, although it’s not looking overly promising. Second, he faces the dilemma of aligning himself with more nationalist parties to secure his party’s standing in the EP, which comes with the risk of alienating his natural allies on the centre-right who will be crucial in his bid to achieve EU reform.

EU leaders will meet tomorrow evening to discuss what to do next and how to negotiate with the new parliament. It might not be pretty.

#EP2014 - early impressions

The exit polls are now starting to roll in and there are already some interesting stories emerging.

Turnout looks on course to be similar to 2009. The estimate for 2014 is 43.11% versus 43% in 2009. In Germany, turnout has increased from 43% to 48%. In France, the early signs are that turnout is around 43%, slightly up from 41%. There is however somewhat of an east-west divide, with Poland's turnout down, 22.7% from 24.5%, Czech at around 20% and far lower than the 28% in 2009. Similarly, in Slovakia, turnout is an abysmal 13%. Italy's vote is also down a lot. UK turnout is estimated at 36%, up from 34%.

Regarding the race for Commission President, the centre-right EPP group looks to be the likely winner. In a worrying move for David Cameron, several senior German politicians, including close Merkel ally David McAllister and SPD Vice-Chancellor have gone on record tonight saying that the European Parliament's Spitzenkandidaten should get the job. Next week will be very tricky for Cameron.

France

In terms of the anti-EU/eurosceptic vote, Marine Le Pen's Front National looks set to achieve a clear victory with around 25%, even beating most expectations.  Francois Hollande's Socialists look set to slump to 14%.

Denmark

In Denmark, the anti-EU Danish People's Party are in first place, also with around 25%.

Greece

In Greece, anti-austerity SYRIZA look set for victory with  26-30%, while the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn are on 8-10%.

Finland

In Finland, we only have advanced voting data, but this shows the (True) Finns only getting 12.8 compared to the over 20% they were polling in the run-up. The Centre Party and national Coalition Party are tied on around 22%,

Germany

In Germany, Angela Merkel's CDU have topped the poll with 36%, while the SPD have done better than expected with 27%%. The anti-euro AfD look on course for six MEPs and, due to the Court ruling to drop the 5% threshold in Germany, the far-right NPD have also won a seat.

Sweden

In Sweden, the big winners are the Green Party, gaining 17.1%. The Social Dmeocrats are the biggest party while centre-right Moderaterna looks set to take a royal beating, only mustering 13%. The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats are on 7% and, in a massive upset, the Feminist Initiative also scored 7%.

Poland

In Poland, as expected, the ruling Civic Platform just edged ahead of Law and Justice with both parties getting over 30%. The centre-left SLD were a long way back in third on 9.6 just ahead of the anti-EU Congress of the New Right on 7.2% (whose leader said he wants to blow up the European Parliament).

Lots to chew on already then - we should have a fuller picture by 9/10pm. Stay tuned and follow us @OpenEurope.

Sarko drops a bomb: At least half of EU powers should return to member states

Three days ahead of the European Parliament elections in France, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy has written a bombshell piece on Europe for French weekly Le Point and German daily Die Welt - calling for "at least half" of current EU powers to be handed back to member states.

Here are the key bits:

We need to look at today's European Union with lucidity. It can't work at 28 as it did at six, nine, or even twelve [member states]. I sincerely believe that there will be no alternative to a drastic reduction of the extent of [the EU's] competences. The situation today borders on the ridiculous and condemns us to powerlessness. 

[...]

Europe has ended up creating an administrative labyrinth, with the Commission and its departments, which indeed need to keep themselves busy. The result: hundreds of directives about the most various and often the most pointless issues. 

Today, we need to scrap at least half of [the EU's] current competences - which will have to be taken on by member states tomorrow. We need to regroup Europe's competences into less than ten basic priority policy areas: industry, agriculture, competition, trade negotiations, energy, research...

It would be unfair to use the Commission and its President as convenient scapegoats for our difficulties...That said, the [European] Commission should no longer have legislative competences because there’s a European Parliament, and it is only for it to legislate. 

On the eurozone vs EU-28 issue, Sarko writes:

Let's have the frankness to say that the myth of one Europe fell to pieces after the adoption of the euro by 18 of 28 [EU] countries. There's not one Europe anymore, but two. Furthermore, these two Europes today need to revise their strategies in different directions. More integration for the 18 [member states] that share their monetary sovereignty. 

[...]

At the same time, we need to stop believing the myth of equality of rights and responsibilities among all member states.

That means Sarkozy envisages a eurozone where bigger countries (especially France and Germany, ça va sans dire) have greater decision-making powers.

Finally, on immigration:

It is evident that we need to immediately suspend Schengen I [the EU's passport-free travel area] and replace it with a Schengen II, which member states could only join after they have previously adopted the same immigration policy.

On this blog, we've argued several times (see here and here) that the rise of Front National has pushed part of France's UMP, the main centre-right party, towards a more critical stance on the 'Europe' issue. It should be clear by now that David Cameron could find allies in France who could back his plan for an EU that does less, but does it better. 

However, the French presidential election is still three years away and, as we have said before, Cameron's biggest potential weakness is his 2017 deadline, which means some of his natural allies will not be in power to help him.

What happens next after the European elections? Get ready for a royal punch-up...

With the European elections taking place on Thursday through to Sunday this week, it is worth considering what happens next. The proposed Spitzenkandidaten or European Parliamentary families’ candidates for European Commission President is set to make the post-election horse-trading and politicking more fraught than usual. As we warn into today’s Times this could have huge implications for the future of the EU and David Cameron’s reform agenda.And it will be nothing short of a royal punch-up.

The EU treaties are ambiguous about exactly how the next Commission President should be selected, but the Lisbon Treaty states that EU leaders must for the first time take “into account” the result of the European elections when proposing the new European Commission President. Ultimately, EU leaders retain the power to reach a compromise candidate among themselves, but the EP’s veto over the appointment could lead to a stand-off between governments and MEPs.

Here is a quick timeline to keep in mind – in effect there will be a three round selection process:

ROUND 1 – 22-25 May 2014: election days

27 May: Martin Schulz (currently European Parliament President and the Socialists’ Spitzenkandidaten), Jean-Claude Juncker, the centre-right EPP candidate, meet the other candidates over breakfast to discuss outcome of elections – presumably to put pressure on national leaders who will meet for dinner later the same day to appoint one of the MEPs' chosen men.

ROUND 2 – 27 May: EU leaders meet for dinner to discuss outcome of the elections – they will no doubt discuss whether to opt for a Spitzenkandidat or propose another candidate. Whether an alternative candidate would come from either the centre-left or centre-right will likely to depend on the outcome of the elections. However, it is unlikely EU leaders will be able to publicly select their candidate before the distribution of the political groups is known (see below).

June: formation of European Parliament political groups – this could be important because the post-election jockeying will determine the political groups’ distribution in the new parliament. If the result between the centre-right EPP and centre-left S&D is tight, as it is looking, picking up a few MEPs here and there from other groups could be vital in becoming the largest group.

The focus will also be on whether Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders manage to put together a new far-right grouping and what the post-election scramble might mean for other groups such as UKIP’s EFD and even the Conservatives’ ECR group. To get the formal status of a political group it must consist of at least 25 MEPs, elected in at least one-quarter of the Member States (i.e. at least 7).

ROUND 2a – 26-27 June: EU leaders meet at European Council meeting. When the European Council has made its proposal for the Commission President, a period of negotiations with the Parliament on his/her political priorities and programme could take place.

1-3 July: EP constitutive session: MEPs officially take up their seats in the Parliament. Election of EP President (not to be confused with the Commission President), vice-presidents and quaestors

7-10 July: official EP political group meetings

ROUND 3 – 14-17 July: session of the Parliament – election of Commission President by a majority of MEPs. Should EU leaders’ candidate be rejected, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, has one month to propose a new candidate.

Once the Commission President has been elected, the Council, in agreement with the Commission President-elect, adopts the list of commissioners designated (i.e. proposed Commissioners from each member state are assigned a portfolio).

September: hearings of designated European Commissioners. The Commissioners-designate appear before the parliamentary committee(s) relevant to their prospective fields of responsibility. MEPs do not have the power to reject individual Commissioners but, in the past, these hearings have led to candidate commissioners withdrawing or having their portfolio changed.

October (tbc): Vote on the full European Commission. The new European Commission must be approved en masse by a majority of MEPs.

So, given that both parts have an effective veto - echoing the Italian parliamentary system (that great constitutional model for getting stuff done) - this stand-off can last for a long time.

Regardless, it won't be pretty. 

The anti-EU vote: Spot the difference

Question: What's the difference between these two opinion polls for this month's European elections?

Answer: Ok, the percentages in the bottom graph are slightly higher, but there is a striking similarity.

The top graph plots the front runners in the French European elections: Marine Le Pen's Front National, the centre-right opposition UMP, and Francois Hollande's governing Parti Socialiste.

Meanwhile, the bottom graph plots the latest European election poll results for UKIP, Labour and the Conservatives.

There is always a tendency to see the anti-EU/government/establishment phenomenon as unique to one's own country. These European elections are likely to prove otherwise.

Would it not be easier if 'Brussels' simply dissolved the people and elected another?

In less than a month's time voters across the EU (that is those who decide to vote) will head to the polls to elect the new European Parliament. Ahead of the elections there has been a lot of speculation about the surge in support for a range of populist anti-EU, anti-austerity, anti-immigrant and anti-establishment parties and what this will mean.

Breaking the parties down into these sub-groups illustrates that the potential 'anti-EU vote' is a complicated phenomenon. In a new briefing published today, we estimate these parties could win as much as 30.9% of the vote in May, up from 24.9% in 2009. This will give them 218 out of 751 seats (29%), up from 164 out of 766 (21.4%) in the current parliament. (You can see our criteria for categorising the parties in the briefing).

These parties, loosely termed by Open Europe as the ‘Malcontents Block’, span the political spectrum and differ substantially from each other, ranging from mainstream governing parties to outright neo-fascists, and will not therefore form a coherent block. The largest increases are among the anti-establishment parties typified by Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement in Italy and the anti-EU vote is largely driven by the rise of the Front National in France and UKIP in the UK. Having said this, we acknowledge that the European elections are in part used by anti-establishment parties to drive a domestic agenda, sometimes with limited links to "Europe". Still from free movement to the bailouts, European issues are now trickling through to voters' decisions.

Sources: Vote Watch Europe and Open Europe calculations

However, despite the strong performance of these anti-EU parties, the EP will continue to be dominated by parties which favour the status quo or further integration. The vote share of parties identified by Open Europe as being ‘critical reformers’ – parties which believe the EU needs fundamental reform if it is to survive – is set to go from 53 to 39 seats.

The net effect of the anti-EU vote could therefore ironically be to make the EP more integrationist: by crowding out critical reformers, by reinforcing the corporatist tendency of the two main groups who will want to freeze out the anti-EU MEPs, and by binding the EP and Commission closer together.

Source: Vote Watch Europe and Open Europe calculations

Another one to watch out for is voter turnout. If turnout is roughly the same this time around (43%), we estimate that 74.4% of all voters will have voted against the EU, for radical change, or not bothered to vote at all, with only 25.6% of all eligible voters actively turning out to vote in favour of status quo/more integration parties.

This is not to say that all 'non-voters' are anti-EU or anti-status quo - some have tried to put words in our mouth to that effect (somewhat predictably). However, it clearly reinforces the European Parliament's remoteness from voters and the thin democratic mandate that MEPs can rely on to push their agenda in the Parliament. Some may be tempted to see voter apathy as a 'net neutral' - we don't know how these voters would vote after all and they're voting for other things apart from Europe anyway. This is a familiar argument that has been used many times in the past as a pretext for pressing ahead with more integration. However, to conclude that voter apathy in fact means 'endorsement' is naive, intellectually dishonest - and outright dangerous as it'll only create even more fertile ground for an even more hostile response in future.

Source: Vote Watch Europe and Open Europe calculations

Worryingly for the UK and other liberal minded EU governments, the share of MEPs explicitly dedicated to free market policies is also expected to fall from 242 (31.6%) to 206 (27.4%).

Source: Vote Watch Europe and Open Europe calculations

All this means that the EP elections may be bad news for David Cameron. The EP has an effective veto over some of Cameron’s potential flagship reforms (outlined in his recent Sunday Telegraph article), including EU-US free trade talks, services liberalisation and rules on migrants’ access to welfare.

The consequence of giving the European Parliament more and more power under successive EU treaties is that these elections matter. MEPs now have equal status with national governments in the vast majority of EU policy areas from regulating working time to bankers' bonuses. Despite this, turnout has fallen in every European election so far and this time around we could see more anti-EU MEPs elected than ever before.

The usual response from the Brussels bubble to voter apathy is that people don't 'understand' the EU. Perhaps, this time politicians might spend more time trying to understand why the electorate is looking for alternatives to the likes of Schulz, Juncker and Verhofstadt or not bothering to vote at all.

Marine means business: Front National makes big gains in French local elections

Yesterday was a big night for Marine Le Pen's anti-EU Front National, which emerged as the main winner of the first round of the French mayoral elections. The party won an outright victory in Hénin-Beaumont, a former mining city in northern France, and finished ahead in six other towns - where its score ranged from 27.69% (in Digne-les-Bains) to 40.3% (in Fréjus). 

In Marseille, the second most populous French city, Front National finished second with 23.16% of votes, behind the centre-right UMP (37.64%) - relegating President François Hollande's Socialist Party to third place, with 20.77% of votes.

We will have to wait until tomorrow evening for the final results. But, according to the preliminary figures made public by French Interior Minister Manuel Valls, the centre-right (that is, the UMP and its allies) won 46.54% of votes nationwide - well ahead of the centre-left (Socialist Party and allies) on 37.74%. So not exactly a night to remember for Hollande.

Le Pen's party was only running in 597 of the almost 37,000 municipalities up for grabs, and therefore won only 4.65% of votes nationwide. However, this is much better than in 2008 - when Front National only managed to run in 119 municipalities and won around 1% of votes nationwide in the first round. This suggests it may be consolidating as an electoral force at the local level.

The second round of the mayoral elections will take place on Sunday 30 March. Interestingly, several top Socialist figures (from Hollande's spokeswoman Najat Vallaud-Belkacem to Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault) have called for the centre-right to support a so-called Front Républicain - whereby the Socialists, the UMP and other centrist parties join forces to stop Front National candidates prevailing in the second round. However, UMP leader Jean-François Copé has this morning dismissed the idea.

So unlike Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, whose PVV party saw its support decrease slightly in last week's Dutch local elections, Front National is on a clear upward path - and it would be no surprise if it came out as the largest party in the upcoming European Parliament elections. It will be interesting to see how yesterday's results will influence the campaign. We have already noted that several centre-right French politicians - including Nicolas Sarkozy himself - have embraced, at least in rhetoric, a less idealistic approach to 'Europe'. Given the Front National's strong showing, this is only likely to continue.

Irony alert: Farage could be the biggest loser if Le Pen and Wilders manage to form a new anti-EU group in the European Parliament

Belonging to a group in the European Parliament matters. Groups receive money on top of individual MEPs' allowances and are given additional group staff. It also boosts chances of representation on committees (where EU laws are discussed and amended before they are put to a vote in the plenary).

Therefore, the prospect of Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's Front National (FN) and Geert Wilders, the leader of the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), forming a new anti-immigration, anti-EU group in the next European Parliament is causing some distress around Europe. When this was last attempted - with the so-called Identity, Tradition, Sovereignty (ITS) group - it quickly fell apart. The Greater Romania Party (PRM) didn't quite approve of Alessandra Mussolini - the granddaughter of you-know-who - labelling Romanians "habitual law-breakers" and thus withdrew from the group. Rather telling.

So will Wilders and Le Pen succeed to unite parties that, per definition, don't always like each other? According to EU rules, 25 MEPs from at least a quarter (seven) EU member states are needed to form a group.

By our count, at least four more parties from as many EU countries look willing to join forces with FN and PVV: Italy's Lega Nord (who currently sits in the same group as UKIP), Belgium's Vlaams Belang, the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) and the Sweden Democrats (whose leader today said they are considering joining). This leaves FN and PVV only one party and country short.

This could be filled by, for example, the Slovak National Party (SNS) - which is pretty hardcore, and currently sits with UKIP. Bulgaria's Ataka would probably also be quite keen to join, though Le Pen recently called the party "the real extreme right" (not meaning it favourably). Greater Romania may struggle to reach the 5% national threshold needed to win seats in the European Parliament, but could be another possibility.

The Danish People's party has said it won't join the group, while Greece's Golden Dawn and Hungary's Jobbik seem to be off-limits for everyone.

So this might come down to the wires. An interesting twist, though: if Le Pen/Wilders succeed, this could mean problems for Farage. UKIP currently sits in the Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD) group - which includes 31 MEPs from twelve different countries, but:

• Farage could lose several MEPs from Italy, with Lega Nord joining FN and PVV, and the other Italian, Magdi Cristiano Allam, standing for re-election with a different party (Fratelli d'Italia);
• The Slovak National Party might join the Le Pen/Wilders group in the end;
• The (True) Finns are talking to the European Conservatives and Reformist (ECR) group, where the UK Conservative Party sits;
• The two Greek MEPs in UKIP's group are from LAOS - a party which is currently polling below the national threshold of 3%. This means their re-election is not certain;
• In addition, seven out of twelve EU countries in UKIP's group are currently represented by only one MEP.

So Farage could need both new parties, additional MEPs and more countries to be able to set a group after May's European elections. And if not managing a group of his own, where will he go? Will he reconsider his decision not to join forces with Marine Le Pen, something he ruled out in the past  when he said UKIP and FN are from "completely different political traditions and background"?

What is clear is that the formation of political groupings in the European Parliament will be a messy affair - and then we haven't even begun to discuss the ECR...

French public opinion and Europe: Winds of change?

With the European Parliament elections approaching, the number of EU-related opinion polls is growing. Beyond the mere voting intentions, these surveys help get a clearer picture of how citizens see Europe in various countries.

Two separate opinion polls published in France over the past few days caught our attention. Just in case you don't read our press summary every day - France is a particularly interesting case, given that the anti-EU Front National may well win the most votes in the upcoming European Parliament elections.

The first poll, conducted by IFOP and published by French news site Atlantico over the weekend, found that 59% of French would be in favour of France "reconsidering the Schengen agreements [which created a passport-free travel zone in Europe] and restraining the conditions for the circulation and the establishment of European citizens on its territory."

A separate OpinionWay poll for Le Figaro and LCI found that, while a solid majority of French want to keep the euro, the number of those against a return to the franc dropped from 62% to 53% since April 2012. Also, the share of respondents who think EU membership is "a good thing" for France went down from 48% to 42% over the same period - again, still a relative majority.  

Interestingly, one of the questions in the poll was, "Which one of these feelings comes to mind when you think of the EU?" Well, 45% said 'disappointment', 18% 'hope' and 12% 'indifference'.

It would be exaggerated to claim that the French are turning their back on the EU, but the winds do seem to be changing somewhat, and the French electorate seems to be shifting towards a less idealistic approach to the 'Europe' issue. Looking at the bigger picture, this also highlights that, without sweeping reform of the EU, the risk is that voters will increasingly turn to anti-EU and anti-immigration parties - and potentially throw the baby out with the bathwater.

An increasing number of politicians across Europe have realised this, including in France. Rachida Dati, a French MEP from the centre-right UMP party, told our pan-European EU Reform Conference last month that the "disregard" of the EU elite for the citizens had to stop, adding that "it is the peoples that must impose their will to Brussels and not the other way around".