The top 10 'spiciest' moments of the German elections

How do we put this delicately...the Germans aren't exactly known for their sense of humour. Equally neither are politicians, other than attracting derisory chuckles at their attempts to seem cool or in touch with the common man. Combine the two and result is often enough to drive large swathes of people to watch the handwork of their decorator dry slowly. 

This round of German elections has been little different, not least because Angela Merkel has actively employed the tactic of trying to bore people into voting for her (see cartoon below). We haven't seen so many references to 'Safe Hands' since David Seaman's auto biography.

Fortunately, there have been a some spicier moments (though we refrain from call them "highlights"), here are the top 10:


The FDP, neo-nazis and a cream cheese discover they have something in common

An awkward moment for the FDP when someone spotted that a stock image of an all-German family used in one of their televised ads also featured in a campaign video for the far-right/neo-Nazi NPD party. Bizarrely, the same family also featured in an advert for a Finnish cream cheese. Unfortunately for the FDP, the moment has not proved as embarassing as being seen as a photocopy of the CDU.

The necklace that won the #tvduel

We all know Germans love gold but this takes the nugget. The only TV debate between Angela Merkel and Peer Steinbrück was considered so dull that it prompted many to proclaim Merkel's fetching patriotic necklace the real winner of the debate, and it quickly gained its own Twitter account with over 8,700 followers to date.

Peer's 'Stinkefinger'

After losing his only televised debate to a necklace, Peer felt the need to take drastic action. But what to do? Well, apparently, if your words aren't working, go 'wordless'. Peer Steinbrück signed up for a 'wordless interview' with Süddeutsche Magazin which ended up receiving widespread coverage in Germany and abroad after he responded to a question by unapologetically flipping the bird. Unfortunately, rather than inspiring the electorate they simply replied in kind...




Lucke's Greek toga party

If you thought Peer's wordless interview was bizarre, wait until you see this. AfD leader (and serious German professor) Bernd Lucke held an interview with German channel Tele 5 on why Greece should leave the euro, during most of which he wore a Greek flag as a toga. He then proceeded to sing a duet with the host, of the AfD's official song to the backing music of Take That's 'Back for good' (a song which Lucke had apparently never heard before). On top of all of this, as some of the papers noted, one of the producers of the show is Greek and proceeded to periodically alter Lucke's voice so that he sounded like Mickey Mouse. A truly bizarre election interview, which is well worth watching even if you don't speak German.

Don't mess with the Currywurst

While pushing for the humane treatment of animals, the Green party ironically managed to shoot themselves in the foot. In an almost inexplicable move, they proposed forcing all public canteens to make one day a week vegetarian day. Unsurprisingly, the suggestion did not go down well in a country famous for loving its meat. “How dare the Greens tell us what to eat!” thundered Germany’s mass circulation Bild newspaper, the day after the proposal was floated. What next? Banning nudism, autobahns or the Hoff...? You simply don't mess with the Currywurst or the Schweinshaxe. The Greens have recently slipped a couple of points in the polls - clearly no coincidence...

Beating the kids at their own game 

The new anti-euro party Alternative für Deutschland was widely derided as a party for old, white and grumpy men or alternatively as the 'Professor party' (if only it was true some would say). The contrast with the young, swinging and tech savvy Pirate party could hardly be greater. However, the AfD has proved it is no slouch when it comes to online campaigning with one of its election campaign videos getting over a million hits, while a Pirate video has received only just over 10,000 views.

Die Partei's whole election campaign

The brilliantly named Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Party for Work, Rule-of-Law, Protection of Animals, Advancement of Elites, and Grassroots-Democratic Initiative) - shortened to Die Partei - is a German satirical party akin to the UK's Monster Raving Loony Party, but much funnier. Set up by Martin Sonneborn, editor of the satirical Titanic magazine, its campaign pledges include razing the City of London to the ground and putting Angela Merkel on trial in a cage. Die Partei also released an election video on 'family policy' featuring (pixelated) scenes from an adult film with a soundtrack of "moaning and groaning, accompanied by light-hearted background music".

The hypnotic Chancellor 

We're not sure if it is her or her necklace, but Merkel has certainly lulled the electorate into a state of tepid contentedness. This cartoon perfectly captures the excitement of the CDU's election campaign. Merkel: "You are going to sleep. Everything is good. You are going out to vote..."





A rough ride for AfD

In their misguided attempts to stop the AfD expressing its alleged intolerant views the members of the Green youth decided to physically halt AfD activists from their right to freedom of speech and expression, with no sense of irony. Green with envy of the AfD's media coverage perhaps? In any case, as reported by Spiegel, this is likely to help the anti-euro party's chances, rather then hurt them.

Merkel drones on...

Just when the scandal surrounding the government's bungled purchase of the multi-million euro 'Euro Hawk' surveillance drone was beginning to fade, a CDU event with Angela Merkel and Defence Minister de Maizière in Dresden was interrupted by a miniature drone operated by remote control. The Pirate party claimed responsibility, saying that "The goal was to make Chancellor Merkel and Defence Minister de Maizière realise what it's like to be subjected to drone observation". Judging by the results above maybe they should just make her watch their election video...

David Hasselhof singing on the Berlin wall

Oh, sorry, that was in 1989...maybe it just seems like yesterday since we watch it on a daily basis...

How one finger livened-up the German election campaign

Peer Steinbrück, the SPD’s Chancellor Candidate graces the front cover of today’s Süddeutsche Magazine unapologetically flicking the bird.

Here's Steinbrück's picture interview in full, (quick fire questions, with 'wordless answers'):

" You’re called Mishap Peer, Problem Peer, Peerlusconi -- you’ve got no worries about being given nice nicknames?”

"Mr. Steinbrück, you and your wife have been married for 38 years. Your advice on a long and happy marriage?"

"Only 26% would vote currently for the SPD. Is that because of you?"

"The FDP leader Philipp Rösler says you don’t have capabilities to be Chancellor. Do you have a message for him?"

"Do you still wear a vest under your shirt?"

"On  scale of one-10: how good is Angela Merkel as a crisis manager? (1= terrible, 10= expert.)"

"How would you react if the Greens go into coalition with the CDU/CSU after the election due to a lack of alternatives?"

Merkel's necklace aside, who won yesterday's German election debate?

Some 17 million Germans – and, we dare to say, a record number of keen international analysts - tuned in yesterday to watch the first and last televised debate between Angela Merkel and SPD contender Peer Steinbrück, ahead of the country’s elections on 22 September.

The debate only briefly touched on the Eurozone crisis and EU policy, with Steinbrück criticising Merkel’s policy over Greece in particular. Though some Anglo-Saxon commentators have written this up as the SPD candidate “criticising austerity” , in fact, he was more criticising the pace of austerity and its balance with more 'growth orientated' policies – not austerity itself.

As we've argued before, you just don’t criticise Sparpolitik in Germany – next to plagiarism, this is the best way to end a mainstream political career. Steinbrück did, however, criticise the pace and scale of Merkel’s austerity policies, again repeating his calls for an as yet very vague new “Marshal Plan” for Europe. “There must be budget consolidation”, he said, but must not be “a deadly dose”. Merkel hit back, saying that if, as Steinbrück claims, the need for a third Greek bailout is a sign of her Eurozone policies failing, why did he and his party vote in favour of all the bailouts so far?

So who won the debate?

The view in the German media and commentariat seems to be pretty unanimous that though the debate itself was pretty much a draw, it involved a bit of a boost for Steinbrück – which wasn't entirely unexpected, given that the man started from an exceptionally low base.

Germany: FGW poll: opinion of Merkel unchanged for 76% of viewers, 14% have a better opinion, 10% a worse one. Steinbrück: 47% 44% 9% #btw13
— electionista (@electionista) September 2, 2013

Snap post-debate polls also suggested a draw, with one putting Steinbrück in the lead (49% to 44%), and two others putting Merkel ahead (40% to 33% and 44% to 43% respectively). A fourth poll put both candidates on 50%.

However, Steinbrück did see a boost to his head-to-head ratings. An ARD poll (see below) has a massive swing in favour of Steinbrück on the question: who would you vote for if the Chancellor could be elected directly?















AnFG Wahlen poll for ZDF shows a much smaller swing for Steinbruck – but still a clear swing.

However, the real winner of the debate, according to many, was Merkel's fetching patriotic necklace, which has now has its own twitter account with over 6,000 followers.

German election update: Would the SPD rather stay in opposition than become Merkel's "lackeys" again?

Given that August is traditionally been a slow news month, we thought we'd revive an old Open Europe tradition - German poll Fridays (we know you're excited!). Its worth remembering we are only 6 weeks away from elections in Germany which will to a large extent determine developments in the eurozone and in the push for EU reform. So where are we at? Well the polls have been remarkably stable for the past few months with minimal fluctuations:

Source: Forsa (other polls display a similar trend)

While the result above would deliver a small majority for Angela Merkel's current conservative/liberal coalition, a couple of percentage points could deprive them of that. However, an alternative coalition of SDP/Greens would also be unlikely to have sufficient seats to govern, and a potential Rot-Rot-Grün (SPD-Greens-Linke) coalition has been ruled out by both sides as unappealing and unworkable.

Here's another consideration: what if the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition wins but ends up with a very narrow majority, meaning the government may not be able to pass contentious eurozone related legislation without support from the opposition due to rebels in its own ranks?

Both these factors increase the likelihood of another CDU/CSU and SPD 'grand coalition', like under Merkel's first Chancellorship between 2005 and 2009.  Although that government - in which the SPD's current Chancellor Peer Steinbrück served as Finance Minister - is credited with successfully navigating through the initial economic crisis, the SDP's poll ratings have never recovered, while Merkel's CDU has gone from strength to strength.

As a result, Steinbrück has ruled out another grand coalition, claiming that:

"The SPD's inclination to enter into a Grand Coalition is pretty much zero. Why should we once again be Merkel’s lackeys?"

Of course the fact that Steinbrück himself would not serve under Merkel again does not preclude a grand coalition with someone else from the party serving as Merkel's deputy. However, antipathy to this idea is widespread throughout the SPD, due to fears it would be unable to implement many of its policies and sink even lower in the polls (although ironically the party has also accused Merkel of stealing all its best policies for the CDU).

This is hardly a story of unrequited love - the CDU/CSU are also not keen on the idea, believing that such a coalition would be unstable as the SPD would be waiting for the appropriate time to bring down the government with the votes of the other left-wing parties before calling new elections, with Merkel unlikely to stand a fourth time, and with other credible CDU 'spitzenkandidaten' thin on the ground.

Either way, if the polls remain stable over the next few weeks and are an accurate reflection of the final results, we could be in for some interesting coalition talks.

As usual, we recommend you follow us on Twitter @OpenEurope, @pswidlicki, @NinaDSchick and @matsJpersson for all the updates from Berlin over the coming weeks.

Steinbrück envisages a Europe led by Franco-German-Polish axis (Hello Cameron!)

Peer Steinbruck laid out his foreign policy in a talk at Berlin's Free University

Peer Steinbrück , leader of Germany’s centre-left SPD Party, and Merkel’s main opposition in September’s elections, laid out his foreign policy in a speech yesterday. It could have been a bit of ‘a non-event’. Germany’s Europe policy can hardly be expected to change in terms of substance, regardless of whether or not Steinbrück seizes the chancellery from Merkel come September. 

Although Steinbrück is critical of elements of Merkel’s vision for Europe, when it comes to the nitty-gritty of substance he mostly agrees. This can be put down to the fact that the traditional conservatism of the German public is more deeply rooted than its occasional impetus for grand reforms.

Against this background, we were expecting a lot of rhetoric, but no grand revelations. But then Steinbrück said something interesting.

Discussing Europe’s role in the world, he called for a Franco-German-Polish axis to shape its future. “This triad of Germany, France and Poland must take the initiative for a new beginning of European foreign and security policy,” said Steinbrück.

The first point to make here is that while the Franco-German alliance in European affairs is nothing new (strained though that partnership may be at the moment) the allusion to Poland as European leader on the world stage is. (And is one that will please a certain Polish Foreign Minister.)

However, the most interesting part of Steinbrück’s speech was the country he did not mention when discussing Europe’s role in the world: the UK.

Whilst Angela Merkel has gone out of her way to point out the importance of the UK playing a leading role in Europe, Steinbrück said the future lies in a Berlin-Paris-Warsaw axis. A signal to London and David Cameron as the Conservative seek new EU membership terms? Possibly.

As we’ve argued before, if Steinbrück became Germany’s next chancellor, the general thrust of Germany’s eurozone politics will likely remain. That’s not big news. The real significance of a centre-left German coalition after the September election for the future of Europe may instead be Berlin being far less interested in striking a new Anglo-German bargain.

We dare to guess that Number 10 wasn’t entirely happy about Steinbrück’s remarks.

Alarm für die SPD: German voters not impressed by the party's approach to the eurozone crisis

We thought we’d revive an old Open Europe tradition today – Friday afternoons = German polling time. And we certainly have some interesting news to bring you from a new ARD Deutschlandtrend poll published yesterday.

First off the parties – no huge variance here compared to other recent polls: CDU/CSU on 40%, SPD on 26%, Greens on 15%, Die Linke on 7% and FDP on 4%. Angela Merkel’s lead here looks solid, the question is will the FDP make it over the 5% threshold?

As we’ve noted before, if the FDP fails to re-enter the Bundestag, it is likely to be in significant part because of the performance of the new German anti-euro party Alternative für Deutschland which appears to have settled in recent polls on 3% (having hit a high of 5% a couple of weeks ago). Interestingly however, 37% said that it would be good if AfD won seats in parliament compared with 58% who said it would be bad; a significant pool of potential support.

The poll also has some worrying news for the SPD in particular – 70% of respondents said that the party had not really made it clear how it intended to solve the eurozone crisis or to differentiate its own policies from those of the government. This is something we’ve flagged up before – rhetoric aside, the SPD’s eurozone policy is broadly the same as that of the coalition’s. The question is, if the party is tempted to go for greater differentiation in this area, would it take a tougher stance (like it did on Cypriot banks) or a softer stance (e.g. on some form of debt-pooling or a dedicated ‘growth fund’).

The poll also confirms the SPD Chancellor candidate Peer Steinbrück's dreadful head-to-head record against Merkel - despite a small improvement in his ratings he still trails her by 28% to 59%.

Finally, 76% of respondents said they expected the euro to survive the crisis, although 29% said they want the return of the Deutschmark. 58% said that the government ought to do “everything possible” to ensure that this happens which is interestingly vague – does it mean greater EU-wide fiscal supervision or a more activist ECB? We suspect that if the latter were offered as a specific policy option it would not gain such high support.

Will the German Social Democracts come out in favour of debt pooling in the eurozone?

Last year we highlighted the German opposition’s somewhat ambiguous position on the hugely controversial proposition of debt mutualisation in the eurozone. However, with September’s elections rapidly approaching, it seems the SPD could have nailed their colours to the mast and have come out in favour, with their draft manifesto – launched yesterday by the party’s chancellor candidate Peer Steinbrück and party chairman Sigmar Gabriel (pictured) - claiming that the subject can “no longer remain taboo” according to Die Welt.

With the manifesto not yet publicly available (it has to be approved at the party’s national conference on April 14), we cannot be sure what form this would take – more limited mutualisation via a so-called debt-redemption fund or more extensive debt mutualisation via commonly issued eurobonds. With the German electorate reamining firmly against dept pooling, we suspect the former.

The party has also come out in favour of expanding the role of the European Commission into a ‘European government’ subject to control by the European Parliament and a second chamber where national governments would be represented, although it must be said that this concept has already been floated both by Angela Merkel and also by the ‘Future of Europe’ group chaired by Guido Westerwelle.

It will be interesting to see what effect – if any – this has on the SPD's electoral fortunes (we can imagine that the new 'Alternative for Germany' anti-euro party making this a big issue). At the moment the party is struggling to break through the 30% barrier in opinion polls and has been as low as 23% in recent weeks.

In addition to the dynamics of German domestic politics, from the perspective of the UK, this debate is both interesting and relevant given that any of the changes proposed above would require changing the EU Treaties, thereby giving the UK the opportunity of putting forward some reform proposals of its own, as suggested by David Cameron in his recent speech.

The Anglo-German axis is stirring up emotions

The political repercussions of the recent EU budget agreement - when London and Berlin stood on the same side and Paris took itself out of the game - are still reverberating.

Yesterday, Former French Environment Minister Jean-Louis Borloo told French radio RTL that the prospect of the Franco-German axis in Europe being replaced by an Anglo-German axis

“is extremely worrying. This means that we’re probably turning our back on the great European ambitions…This is an extremely important political and diplomatic shift.” 

Which is of course code for: 'France fears that the EU is becoming less French'.

Meanwhile, in a debate in the German Bundestag this morning, the SPD’s Chancellor Candidate Peer Steinbrück criticised Angela Merkel for engaging in an “unholy alliance” with David Cameron over the EU budget. He said,

“if you want more Europe in the future [Germany] needs partners who see its future in Europe.” 

FDP faction leader Rainer Brüderle immediately fired back, however, saying that,

“I am glad that our Chancellor Angela Merkel negotiated [in Brussels] and not Peer Steinbrück who sometimes is described as a diplomatic neutron bomb.” 

We shouldn't read too much into this stuff but, clearly, the changing Berlin-Paris-London dynamic is certainly stirring up emotions...

Is the SPD in crisis?

A new Stern-RTL poll out yesterday, widely reported in the German media, has Angela Merkel’s CDU on 43%, and the SPD, the main opposition party on only 23% - its lowest since July 2011 and equal to the actual share of votes won in the 2009 elections. Not being able to better this after a spell in opposition would be seen as disastrous, and could suggest Germany’s longest serving political party is in long term decline:

SPD vote share since re-unification

Equally worryingly for the party, its Chancellor candidate (German parties don’t have fixed ‘leaders’) Peer Steinbrück gets absolutely thrashed in head to head polling with Merkel, only winning 18% to her 58%. This has led to other senior figures in the party having to deny speculation that he could possibly replaced. Notwithstanding the confusion and mixed signals this would cause, the SPD doesn’t really have a credible ‘Plan B’ - Steinbrück – a successful Finance Minister during the 2005 – 2009 Grand Coalition – easily won the nomination ahead of other potential nominees.

The poll highlights Merkel’s remarkable electoral resilience and highlights the extent to which she is seen as a safe pair of hands during a period of huge economic and political uncertainty. It remains to be seen how the SPD will respond to this dire polling, for instance, could it be tempted to more strongly differentiate its eurozone policy which rhetoric aside has been relatively close to that of the government?

Of course we still have a long way to go till September, and plenty could happen in the meantime, especially given the low growth forecast for the coming year. Equally, given the country’s electoral system, a change of a couple of percentage points for any of the parties could produce radically different government constellations; a continuation of the CDU-FDP coalition, another Grand Coalition, a SPD-Green coalition, even a CDU-Green coalition has been suggested. The result will be significant for the rest of Europe including the UK, as Merkel is more likely to be sympathetic to EU reform than the SPD or Greens.

This Sunday’s regional elections in Lower Saxony will be an interesting forerunner as in a reflection of the national trend the CDU – led by the popular half-German half-Scottish David McAllister – is clearly in the lead, but in the absence of a coalition partner, with the FDP below the the 5% threshold, power could pass to a SPD-Green coalition.