European Parliament committees: more secret ballots and backroom deals?

EU democracy at work?

The European Parliament has announced the composition of its Committees, with MEP groups hard at work negotiating the final deals to see who will be Chair and Vice-Chair of the different bodies.

These Committees vary in importance, from the powerful ECON and IMCO committees which deal with Economic and Monetary affairs and the single market respectively - to more niche Committees such as the 'Petitions' Committee.

Looking through the lists of MEPs appointed, the first thing that strikes us is that all the Committees are gigantic - the Committee on Foreign Affairs has a ludicrous 71 members (almost 10% of the entire parliament)! It's not immediately clear why this is, but we can't help but wonder if the possibility for significant travel abroad is not a factor. But even the more serious Committees are of an unwieldy size - Trade (also with some travel perks) has 41 members, which is perhaps more justifiable as the EP now has a veto over free trade deals. It is worth remembering that under Parkinson's "coefficient of inefficiency" a committee of more than 20 members is less likely to make good decisions.

Secondly there are some interesting appointments:

• German neo-Nazi MEP Udo Voigt will sit on the European Parliament's Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs Committee.
• AfD leader Bernd Lucke is to be nominated as vice chair of the ECON committee - in charge of monetary union. Combine this with the fact that the Chair is likely to be an Italian Socialist MEP and some eurozone members might be concerned about this committee.

Under the EU's favoured D'Hondt formula, the different groups are allotted committee chairs according to their relative weights. The ECR group for instance, has secured an additional chair due to its increased size; it has gained Security and Defence on top of its existing Internal Market chair.

However nothing is settled in the EP until you have had the mandatory secret ballot. One potential secret upset could be an attempt to deprive the UKIP/M5S EFDD group of it sole Committee chair - the Petitions committee. Under a secret ballot it is entirely possible for the larger groups to block the EFDD group from chairing a committee.Whether or not you agree with their politics, there is no doubt that they are entitled to such a role, and even the Greens have come out saying as much. Another stitch up here would once again expose a lack of democracy and transparency at the heart of the European Parliament - and surely only play into the hands of those who want to leave the EU.

"Something is rotten in Europe" - European elections reaction round-up

As the dust settles following the European elections, we are now beginning to see some interesting analysis and commentary from across the EU. Here is our round-up.

Despite the relative success of the established parties in Germany, many commentators have picked up on the EU-wide picture with FAZ's economics editor Holger Steltzner writing that the rise of anti-EU and protest parties across Europe should serve as a “dramatic warning” and that 

“The EU can no any longer be a one-way street, but should give back [powers] to the member states or local authorities.”

Die Welt's front page leader, written by Alan Poesner argues that:

"Something is rotten in Europe. And the reaction of politicians from the large European party-blocs makes it clear where the problem lies. 'Given the strength of the populists we have to work even closer together' is what you hear from both sides. This means: the establishment is locking ranks and closing its ears."  

In Bild, Jan Schäfer argues that:

"In the future, extremists from both sides will grip Europe like a set of pliers! The result: more nationalism, more little-statism and less free trade. That is bad for exports, for jobs. It is the opposite of what Europe needs right now."

Spain's leading daily El País leader argues that:

“In reality, it will be difficult to get out of the dynamics of a grand coalition, irrespective of whether the latter is the most convenient [option] from the political point of view, which demands a display of alternatives. But there is little doubt [a grand coalition is the most convenient option] from the perspective of the necessary stability of the continent.”  

In Italian daily Corriere della Sera, Aldo Cazzullo argues that:  

“The 2014 [European Parliament] elections will be remembered as the historic defeat of a political system. The eclipse of traditional parties. The rejection of the European establishment… The European vote confirms a trend that extends itself well beyond the continent: the sign of our times is the revolt against the elites, the institutions, the traditional forms of representation. And Europe is perceived as the bedrock and the guarantor of those elites people are rebelling against.”

In France, Nicolas Barré argues in Los Echos that: 

“With regard to Europe, the message from voters and those who abstained is rather a great distress towards political projects that seem empty to them – as [these projects] offer a choice between going backwards, which is always something difficult to enthuse about, and moving forward, but without knowing very well to where. Since the status quo is not an option either, for being so unsatisfactory, one can understand that a large number of voters have stayed away from ballot boxes or have voted 'against'."  

Dutch daily De Volkskrant features a comment piece by Alexis Brezet, the opinion pages editor of French daily Le Figaro in which he argues that:

"the European idea, as developed since the Treaty of Maastricht, is the main victim of the elections. If you add the non-voters to the voters who have supported a europhobic or eurosceptic party, it's only one third of EU citizens which supports the European project. Apparently Europe, which is being shaped without the people and sometimes against the people, doesn't appeal any longer...If Europe wants to win back the hearts of Europeans, simple reparations won't suffice: a fundamental reform is needed." 

A leader in Belgian daily De Tijd argues that:

"the eurosceptics will in-avoidably weigh on decision making in their own countries and in Europe... Cameron will now refuse to make any concessions to Brussels... discussions about British EU membership and its modalities will become very difficult. France is an even bigger problem. The core eurozone country has struggled for a long time already, economically... Now that a quarter of the French have voted for Marine Le Pen... it will become even more difficult for Hollande to implement necessary reforms and savings."

In Poland meanwhile, most commentators are focusing on the national implications of the vote - where Civic Platform beat Law and Justice by a very narrow margin - and have not really commented on the broader European picture.

No doubt much more will be written about these elections in the coming days and weeks, but it's clear that many already consider them to be a potential watershed moment for the 'European project'.

Heads begin to roll in aftermath of European election shock

As might be expected after some shocking showings in the European Parliament (EP) elections, the heads have begun to roll – and rightly so, some would say.

The most high profile resignation so far is that of the Spanish opposition Socialist leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba (pictured) who stepped down yesterday after his party’s vote share dropped to 23% from 39% in the previous EP election. His decision is not exactly a surprise as many have been scratching their heads over the opposition’s lack of penetration despite numerous opportunities including (but not limited to) the Spanish economic malaise, austerity and Partido Popular’s top level corruption scandal. Where the party goes from here remains to be seen but with the rise of regional (particularly Catalan) parties and the new Podemos movement (see our profile here) the party needs to reassert itself as the primary opposition.

Similarly, a poor showing by the Romanian opposition party saw its leader Crin Antonescu resign along with all the party’s executive bureau. Interestingly, the party has also voted to switch from the liberal ALDE grouping in the EP to the centre-right EPP.

Meanwhile, in Ireland, Labour leader Eamon Gilmore jumped before he was pushed after his party secured barely 7% of the vote – likely paying the price for being the junior coalition partner during a difficult period of government (similar to Lib Dems in the UK or PASOK in Greece). This paves the way for a cabinet reshuffle, but again his replacement is also still unclear.

Other scalps include Igor Lukšič, President of the Slovenian Social Democrats, who has bitten the bullet and stepped down, as well as the leader of the Hungarian Socialists, Tibor Szanyi, who offered his resignation (subsequently accepted) after his party was comfortably beaten by the neo-fascist Jobbik.

There could still be more to follow as the dust settles. But more importantly than those who have lost their heads is for those that just clung on to theirs to get the message and begin pushing for some serious reform across Europe and offering a clear alternative to those who still do not.

Anti-system MEPs surge in the European Parliament: how will EU leaders respond?

Open Europe has today responded to the preliminary 2014 European Parliament elections results. Please note that these figures are based on a combination of final results and some projections so could still be subject to change. However, we do not consider any substantial swings likely.

Here are the key points:

• Share of anti-EU and anti-establishment vote is slightly higher than expected with such parties collectively on course to win 229 out of 751 seats in the new European Parliament (30.5%), up from 164 out of 766 seats in the current parliament (21.4%).
• European Parliament politics are set to become more unpredictable though the anti-EU and anti-establishment block remains incoherent and the two main groups will continue to dominate.
• The share of MEPs dedicated to free market policies drops, from 32% to 28.1%.
• Compared to 2009, overall turnout stayed flat despite more powers for MEPs in the Lisbon Treaty and the EU becoming a high-profile issue in the wake of the Eurozone crisis.
• Several anti-incumbent parties in the EP for the first time, ranging from Feminist Initiative in Sweden to Spain’s new leftist movement Podemos, founded as late as March 2014.

 The rise of anti-EU and protest parties on the left and right will make European politics more unpredictable but, paradoxically, it could also strengthen the resolve of the three mainstream groups to continue to vote for more Europe in the European Parliament, in order to freeze out the anti-EU contingent (click on the pictures to enlarge).

The temptation in Brussels and national capitals will be to view this as the peak of anti-EU sentiment as the eurozone crisis calms down and the economy improves. This would be a huge gamble. The make-up and reasons for the rise of these parties are complex, but it’s clear that the best way to cut off their oxygen is to show that the EU can reform itself and respond to voters. These elections are a clear warning: offer voters a polarised choice between more Europe and no Europe and sooner or later they will choose the latter.

David Cameron now faces a seriously tricky week. He has two main challenges. First, he will try to muster enough allies to block Jean-Claude Juncker, the front-runner for European Commission President, although it’s not looking overly promising. Second, he faces the dilemma of aligning himself with more nationalist parties to secure his party’s standing in the EP, which comes with the risk of alienating his natural allies on the centre-right who will be crucial in his bid to achieve EU reform.

EU leaders will meet tomorrow evening to discuss what to do next and how to negotiate with the new parliament. It might not be pretty.

#EP2014 - early impressions

The exit polls are now starting to roll in and there are already some interesting stories emerging.

Turnout looks on course to be similar to 2009. The estimate for 2014 is 43.11% versus 43% in 2009. In Germany, turnout has increased from 43% to 48%. In France, the early signs are that turnout is around 43%, slightly up from 41%. There is however somewhat of an east-west divide, with Poland's turnout down, 22.7% from 24.5%, Czech at around 20% and far lower than the 28% in 2009. Similarly, in Slovakia, turnout is an abysmal 13%. Italy's vote is also down a lot. UK turnout is estimated at 36%, up from 34%.

Regarding the race for Commission President, the centre-right EPP group looks to be the likely winner. In a worrying move for David Cameron, several senior German politicians, including close Merkel ally David McAllister and SPD Vice-Chancellor have gone on record tonight saying that the European Parliament's Spitzenkandidaten should get the job. Next week will be very tricky for Cameron.

France

In terms of the anti-EU/eurosceptic vote, Marine Le Pen's Front National looks set to achieve a clear victory with around 25%, even beating most expectations.  Francois Hollande's Socialists look set to slump to 14%.

Denmark

In Denmark, the anti-EU Danish People's Party are in first place, also with around 25%.

Greece

In Greece, anti-austerity SYRIZA look set for victory with  26-30%, while the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn are on 8-10%.

Finland

In Finland, we only have advanced voting data, but this shows the (True) Finns only getting 12.8 compared to the over 20% they were polling in the run-up. The Centre Party and national Coalition Party are tied on around 22%,

Germany

In Germany, Angela Merkel's CDU have topped the poll with 36%, while the SPD have done better than expected with 27%%. The anti-euro AfD look on course for six MEPs and, due to the Court ruling to drop the 5% threshold in Germany, the far-right NPD have also won a seat.

Sweden

In Sweden, the big winners are the Green Party, gaining 17.1%. The Social Dmeocrats are the biggest party while centre-right Moderaterna looks set to take a royal beating, only mustering 13%. The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats are on 7% and, in a massive upset, the Feminist Initiative also scored 7%.

Poland

In Poland, as expected, the ruling Civic Platform just edged ahead of Law and Justice with both parties getting over 30%. The centre-left SLD were a long way back in third on 9.6 just ahead of the anti-EU Congress of the New Right on 7.2% (whose leader said he wants to blow up the European Parliament).

Lots to chew on already then - we should have a fuller picture by 9/10pm. Stay tuned and follow us @OpenEurope.

Dutch reformers hold ground as Wilders falters

We've already blogged about the Dutch #EP2014 exit poll but we thought we'd also break down the projected result according to the classifications we used in our recent briefing which forecast the composition of the new parliament. Rather than using the arbitrary and artificial EP political groups (which tell you little about what the parties actually believe), we classified the parties in three blocs - status quo/more integration, critical reformers, and the malcontents' block (see here for a detailed explanation of these classifications).

Here is how the projected Dutch result looks:

While we predicted that overall, there is a risk that the malcontents' bloc and the status quo/more integration parties could crowd out the critical reformers, the Netherlands could slightly buck this trend with the critical reformist parties - Dutch PM Mark Rutte's VVD party and the ChristianUnion - increasing their vote share.

This is encouraging although sadly it looks unlikely to be replicated across the EU given that Dutch politics is particularly fertile for reform minded parties.

Sarko drops a bomb: At least half of EU powers should return to member states

Three days ahead of the European Parliament elections in France, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy has written a bombshell piece on Europe for French weekly Le Point and German daily Die Welt - calling for "at least half" of current EU powers to be handed back to member states.

Here are the key bits:

We need to look at today's European Union with lucidity. It can't work at 28 as it did at six, nine, or even twelve [member states]. I sincerely believe that there will be no alternative to a drastic reduction of the extent of [the EU's] competences. The situation today borders on the ridiculous and condemns us to powerlessness. 

[...]

Europe has ended up creating an administrative labyrinth, with the Commission and its departments, which indeed need to keep themselves busy. The result: hundreds of directives about the most various and often the most pointless issues. 

Today, we need to scrap at least half of [the EU's] current competences - which will have to be taken on by member states tomorrow. We need to regroup Europe's competences into less than ten basic priority policy areas: industry, agriculture, competition, trade negotiations, energy, research...

It would be unfair to use the Commission and its President as convenient scapegoats for our difficulties...That said, the [European] Commission should no longer have legislative competences because there’s a European Parliament, and it is only for it to legislate. 

On the eurozone vs EU-28 issue, Sarko writes:

Let's have the frankness to say that the myth of one Europe fell to pieces after the adoption of the euro by 18 of 28 [EU] countries. There's not one Europe anymore, but two. Furthermore, these two Europes today need to revise their strategies in different directions. More integration for the 18 [member states] that share their monetary sovereignty. 

[...]

At the same time, we need to stop believing the myth of equality of rights and responsibilities among all member states.

That means Sarkozy envisages a eurozone where bigger countries (especially France and Germany, ça va sans dire) have greater decision-making powers.

Finally, on immigration:

It is evident that we need to immediately suspend Schengen I [the EU's passport-free travel area] and replace it with a Schengen II, which member states could only join after they have previously adopted the same immigration policy.

On this blog, we've argued several times (see here and here) that the rise of Front National has pushed part of France's UMP, the main centre-right party, towards a more critical stance on the 'Europe' issue. It should be clear by now that David Cameron could find allies in France who could back his plan for an EU that does less, but does it better. 

However, the French presidential election is still three years away and, as we have said before, Cameron's biggest potential weakness is his 2017 deadline, which means some of his natural allies will not be in power to help him.