Anti-system MEPs surge in the European Parliament: how will EU leaders respond?

Open Europe has today responded to the preliminary 2014 European Parliament elections results. Please note that these figures are based on a combination of final results and some projections so could still be subject to change. However, we do not consider any substantial swings likely.

Here are the key points:

• Share of anti-EU and anti-establishment vote is slightly higher than expected with such parties collectively on course to win 229 out of 751 seats in the new European Parliament (30.5%), up from 164 out of 766 seats in the current parliament (21.4%).
• European Parliament politics are set to become more unpredictable though the anti-EU and anti-establishment block remains incoherent and the two main groups will continue to dominate.
• The share of MEPs dedicated to free market policies drops, from 32% to 28.1%.
• Compared to 2009, overall turnout stayed flat despite more powers for MEPs in the Lisbon Treaty and the EU becoming a high-profile issue in the wake of the Eurozone crisis.
• Several anti-incumbent parties in the EP for the first time, ranging from Feminist Initiative in Sweden to Spain’s new leftist movement Podemos, founded as late as March 2014.

 The rise of anti-EU and protest parties on the left and right will make European politics more unpredictable but, paradoxically, it could also strengthen the resolve of the three mainstream groups to continue to vote for more Europe in the European Parliament, in order to freeze out the anti-EU contingent (click on the pictures to enlarge).

The temptation in Brussels and national capitals will be to view this as the peak of anti-EU sentiment as the eurozone crisis calms down and the economy improves. This would be a huge gamble. The make-up and reasons for the rise of these parties are complex, but it’s clear that the best way to cut off their oxygen is to show that the EU can reform itself and respond to voters. These elections are a clear warning: offer voters a polarised choice between more Europe and no Europe and sooner or later they will choose the latter.

David Cameron now faces a seriously tricky week. He has two main challenges. First, he will try to muster enough allies to block Jean-Claude Juncker, the front-runner for European Commission President, although it’s not looking overly promising. Second, he faces the dilemma of aligning himself with more nationalist parties to secure his party’s standing in the EP, which comes with the risk of alienating his natural allies on the centre-right who will be crucial in his bid to achieve EU reform.

EU leaders will meet tomorrow evening to discuss what to do next and how to negotiate with the new parliament. It might not be pretty.

#EP2014 - early impressions

The exit polls are now starting to roll in and there are already some interesting stories emerging.

Turnout looks on course to be similar to 2009. The estimate for 2014 is 43.11% versus 43% in 2009. In Germany, turnout has increased from 43% to 48%. In France, the early signs are that turnout is around 43%, slightly up from 41%. There is however somewhat of an east-west divide, with Poland's turnout down, 22.7% from 24.5%, Czech at around 20% and far lower than the 28% in 2009. Similarly, in Slovakia, turnout is an abysmal 13%. Italy's vote is also down a lot. UK turnout is estimated at 36%, up from 34%.

Regarding the race for Commission President, the centre-right EPP group looks to be the likely winner. In a worrying move for David Cameron, several senior German politicians, including close Merkel ally David McAllister and SPD Vice-Chancellor have gone on record tonight saying that the European Parliament's Spitzenkandidaten should get the job. Next week will be very tricky for Cameron.

France

In terms of the anti-EU/eurosceptic vote, Marine Le Pen's Front National looks set to achieve a clear victory with around 25%, even beating most expectations.  Francois Hollande's Socialists look set to slump to 14%.

Denmark

In Denmark, the anti-EU Danish People's Party are in first place, also with around 25%.

Greece

In Greece, anti-austerity SYRIZA look set for victory with  26-30%, while the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn are on 8-10%.

Finland

In Finland, we only have advanced voting data, but this shows the (True) Finns only getting 12.8 compared to the over 20% they were polling in the run-up. The Centre Party and national Coalition Party are tied on around 22%,

Germany

In Germany, Angela Merkel's CDU have topped the poll with 36%, while the SPD have done better than expected with 27%%. The anti-euro AfD look on course for six MEPs and, due to the Court ruling to drop the 5% threshold in Germany, the far-right NPD have also won a seat.

Sweden

In Sweden, the big winners are the Green Party, gaining 17.1%. The Social Dmeocrats are the biggest party while centre-right Moderaterna looks set to take a royal beating, only mustering 13%. The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats are on 7% and, in a massive upset, the Feminist Initiative also scored 7%.

Poland

In Poland, as expected, the ruling Civic Platform just edged ahead of Law and Justice with both parties getting over 30%. The centre-left SLD were a long way back in third on 9.6 just ahead of the anti-EU Congress of the New Right on 7.2% (whose leader said he wants to blow up the European Parliament).

Lots to chew on already then - we should have a fuller picture by 9/10pm. Stay tuned and follow us @OpenEurope.

French public opinion and Europe: Winds of change?

With the European Parliament elections approaching, the number of EU-related opinion polls is growing. Beyond the mere voting intentions, these surveys help get a clearer picture of how citizens see Europe in various countries.

Two separate opinion polls published in France over the past few days caught our attention. Just in case you don't read our press summary every day - France is a particularly interesting case, given that the anti-EU Front National may well win the most votes in the upcoming European Parliament elections.

The first poll, conducted by IFOP and published by French news site Atlantico over the weekend, found that 59% of French would be in favour of France "reconsidering the Schengen agreements [which created a passport-free travel zone in Europe] and restraining the conditions for the circulation and the establishment of European citizens on its territory."

A separate OpinionWay poll for Le Figaro and LCI found that, while a solid majority of French want to keep the euro, the number of those against a return to the franc dropped from 62% to 53% since April 2012. Also, the share of respondents who think EU membership is "a good thing" for France went down from 48% to 42% over the same period - again, still a relative majority.  

Interestingly, one of the questions in the poll was, "Which one of these feelings comes to mind when you think of the EU?" Well, 45% said 'disappointment', 18% 'hope' and 12% 'indifference'.

It would be exaggerated to claim that the French are turning their back on the EU, but the winds do seem to be changing somewhat, and the French electorate seems to be shifting towards a less idealistic approach to the 'Europe' issue. Looking at the bigger picture, this also highlights that, without sweeping reform of the EU, the risk is that voters will increasingly turn to anti-EU and anti-immigration parties - and potentially throw the baby out with the bathwater.

An increasing number of politicians across Europe have realised this, including in France. Rachida Dati, a French MEP from the centre-right UMP party, told our pan-European EU Reform Conference last month that the "disregard" of the EU elite for the citizens had to stop, adding that "it is the peoples that must impose their will to Brussels and not the other way around".