The EU Referendum Bill passes another hurdle - but time is running out

EU Referendum Bill rises again

The Conservative party's attempt to force an EU Referendum in 2017 onto the statute book is back in the guise of Bob Neill's Private Member's Bill (remember James Wharton's bill was killed of by the Lords back in January). Once again, the bill has passed at second reading stage in the House of Commons (283 MPs voted in favour and none were brave enough to vote against).

So what are its prospects for success this time around?

The Bill will now go to Committee stage where the best strategy for those who wish to scupper it (without been seen to be overtly doing so) will be to amend the bill in order to prevent it from being 'parliament acted' - something which will happen automatically if the Bill is rejected outright or is still stuck in the Lords by the time parliament is dissolved for the general election. Since the unsuccessful Bill has to be exactly the same on both occasions, if Labour and Lib Dem MPs manage to - for example - extend the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds as happened in the Scottish referendum, the Parliament Act could not be used. The exact make-up of the committee (will any pro-referendum Labour MPs be included?) could prove crucial.

Another problem is that unlike James Wharton - who topped the Private Members' Bill ballot last time around - Bob Neill only came third, so his Bill is behind the two other PMBs in the parliamentary pecking order. Both are relatively contentious themselves - one seeks to fundamentally reform the so-called 'bedroom tax' and the other aims to enshrine the government's to spend 0.7% of GDP in foreign aid - so the more time they spend in Committee stage, the longer it will take for Neill's Bill to progress to that stage.

If however it does navigate its way through the Commons unamended, then it will be for the next UK Government to either hold the referendum as instructed, ignore the law or seek to reverse the legislation. Either way, it will have served its primary purpose - convincing a sceptical electorate that the Conservatives are serious about a referendum.

All hail Angela Merkel – No 10 goes all out for the Chancellor

Painting in the Royal Gallery - the Duke of Wellington with Field Marshal Blucher at the Battle of Waterloo - harking back to an earlier age of Anglo-German cooperation.

Angela Merkel will visit London on 27th February, in what will be, no doubt, a much hyped affair. Though the details are yet to be confirmed, in addition to meeting David Cameron and the Queen, Merkel could also “be given the rare privilege” – as the Telegraph’s Chris Hope put it – of addressing both Houses of Parliament at the Royal Gallery, perhaps in an attempt to rekindle the spirit of the early 19th Century when Anglo-German cooperation was the norm (see painting).

 

The last head of government to address the Royal Gallery was apparently Nicolas Sarkozy – then French President – in 2008. We suspect that for Merkel this is more a case of “business as usual” rather than “privilege” but in any case, it’s significant.

There’s no doubt that the Tory leadership hopes for encouraging signs from the Chancellor, following Francois Hollande’s predictable comments last week that EU treaty change “is not a priority” (which nonetheless generated headlines). Far worse for Cameron et al was that the German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier proved such hard work when he was here on Monday – holding a rather awkward press conference alongside William Hague, which included some tempered language on Treaty change (which even came close to contradicting the German Coalition agreement).

As we’ve noted before, the German Grand Coalition isn’t a deal-breaker for Cameron’s plans but it does mean a lot more work. In contrast to the Steinmeier visit, which was barely publicised (most lobby journalists - the parliamentary correspondents who often set the agenda in UK press - were unaware of the meeting instead basing their write-ups on the news wires, which arguably triggered even worse headlines for Hague / Cameron), the Government will go all out for Merkel.

As we’ve argued since the start, Merkel holds the key to a new settlement in Europe, so No 10 is right to step it up. However, at the same time, it must be wary of not being seen as desperate – Merkel is by far the most important leader in Europe, and the big Europe questions are decided by the Kanzleramt and even the Finanzministerium, not the Auswärtiges Amt. Nevertheless, the strategy cannot entirely rest on Merkel, also keeping in mind that this is her last term, with her potentially getting weaker closer to the end.

Merkel’s visit will mark the start of a fresh attempt by No 10 to court EU leaders (read: explain to Europe what in the world Britain actually wants to achieve apart from creating emergency headlines to appease backbenchers). It won’t be a day too early. 

EU Referendum Bill: Peers or the People - will Cameron seek to overrule the Lords?

Which century do the Lords think they live in?

So the assembled House of Quangocrats (sorry, we couldn't help it), former MPs, diplomats and political hacks otherwise known as the House of Lords has voted to put an end to the Conservative's EU Referendum Bill. David Cameron will most likely now try to use the so-called Parliament Act. This is a rarely used power which allows the House of Commons to effectively over-rule the House of Lords. So this will be a showdown.

We looked at how this could work before. This is the likely sequence of events from here.

Firstly, the Parliament Act requires that the Bill should be rejected twice by the Lords in consecutive sessions of Parliament. Running out of time counts as rejection but the Bill needs to be presented in exactly the same form in the next session of Parliament. This will require the same rigmarole as the first time around - a new Conservative backbench MP taking up the Bill in backbench time, and further votes which will require another abstention by the majority of Labour MPs.

So will there be enough time before the election to actual use the Parliament Act? The biggest risk for the Tories is that the Peers who oppose the Bill continue to debate it until the end of the next session, meaning that Cameron would never get the chance to use the Parliamentary Act. The second session will start in May. That will give the Conservatives a year to get it through the Commons and into the Lords before the election. If it is still in the Lords when the general election is called in May 2015, it could potentially be "Parliament Acted" as one of Parliament's last acts before it is dissolved for the election.

Could John Bercow MP - the Common's speaker - have a role? The legislation states that a certificate is required on the Bill to state the parliament Act has been complied with. It states a "certificate of the Speaker of the House of Commons signed by him that the provisions of this section have been duly complied with" is needed. It would be highly controversial for him not to comply but stranger things have happened.

So it is just possible to get this through before the election, even if the Lords try to talk it out. This will give the Conservative's a symbolic victory and a political advantage but will not bring a referendum on its own. That will require Cameron to win an election.

This has been a tricky Europe week for David Cameron

Europe reacts to David Cameron's defeat on Syria

Europe has reacted with surprise - and a degree of shock - to David Cameron's defeat in the House of Commons, which has de facto ruled out British participation in any potential military operation in Syria, at least for now. Here is a first round-up.

In an interview with Le Monde, French President François Hollande commented the outcome of the vote as follows,

Each country is sovereign [and can decide] to take part in a [military] operation or not. This is valid for the UK as well as for France.

Hollande suggests France could go ahead with or without the UK, and says,

If the [UN] Security Council is unable to act, a coalition will be formed. It will have to be the largest possible…It will have the support of the Europeans. But there are only few countries that have the capacity to inflict a sanction through the appropriate means. France is one of them. It’s ready [to act]. It will decide its position in close contact with its allies.

An editorial in Le Monde carries the headline, "The Commons vote against...Tony Blair", and notes,

It's the trauma of the Iraqi episode…that explains the 'no' of the British parliament to a [military] action in Syria. It's not David Cameron…who has been defeated. Rather, he pays for Tony Blair – as Mr Cameron himself acknowledged during the debate. 

As regards the international implications of yesterday's vote, the article goes on,

Washington has indicated that the decision of the UK – the privileged ally, the one of the 'special relationship' – would not stop the US intervening. But [the UK’s decision] can’t not embarrass Paris – even though, officially, France’s position remains that it is impossible not to react to the use of chemical weapons.

Germany's Die Welt has a comment piece entitled, "Cameron experiences his greatest humiliation". The article notes,

The refusal of the British House of Commons to participate in a military strike against Syria has left Cameron badly damaged - and with him the 'special relationship' with the United States.

Die Welt's chief correspondent Michael Strümer stresses how, once again, when it comes to 'hard power' the EU disappears. He writes,

While all eyes are on Washington, New York, Moscow, and on Damascus, Ankara, Cairo and Jerusalem, awkward silence reigns in Brussels…In the corridors of powerlessness in Brussels you can sense frustration and little momentum.

Christian Zaschke of Süddeutsche Zeitung describes the vote as,

A political slap in the face of historic proportions” for the Prime Minister, adding that it will define his tenure…On the international stage, [Britain] will be taken less seriously.

In Denmark, the only other EU country that has signalled it might take part in a strike, political leaders have this morning signalled that the country remains committed - although Foreign Minister Villy Søvndal also warned that the UK vote "calls for reflection".

When asked about the vote, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski dodged the question, replying that it is important to have confidence in the UN inspectors' evidence. Sikorski also suggested that a possible solution could be for Russia to secure the Syrian regime's chemical weapons stockpiles - as the majority of them dates from Soviet times.
 
In Spain, an article in El País under the headline, "A blow to Cameron", argues that, as a result of the vote,

The British Prime Minister sees his authority seriously dwindled and, in an unprecedented event in the country’s modern history, has lost control over foreign policy.

Italian political commentator Gianni Riotta notes in La Stampa,

Paradoxically, Hollande, a French Socialist, seems to be the ‘hawk number one’. After securing a very prudent pension reform, he’s now trying to use strength against an ex colony inherited by the Turks to titillate the nation’s imperial pride – although Cameron’s defeat will lead him to take a milder stance.

We will keep updating the blog with any other interesting reactions throughout the day.