Is Hammond the most eurosceptic Tory Foreign Secretary to date?

Hammond: Will he win back UKIP voters to the Conservatives?

Following the surprise resignation of William Hague as Foreign Secretary last night and the appointment this morning of Philip Hammond as his replacement, the Conservatives' Europe policy is once again in the spotlight. We now have a Foreign Secretary who has said that he would vote to leave the EU if it does not reform (he came out in support of Michael Gove who came out with similar comments). Last year, Hammond said:

"If the choice is between a European Union written exactly as it is today and not being a part of that then I have to say that I'm on the side of the argument that Michael Gove has put forward. I believe that we have to negotiate a better solution that works better for Britain if we are going to stay in."

He also told the BBC's Andrew Marr programme last year:

"I believe that we have to negotiate a better solution that works better for Britain if we are going to stay in and play a part in the European Union in the future, but let me be absolutely clear: I think it is defeatist to sort of say we want to leave the European Union."

"We should say no, this is a club that we are members of, and before we talk about leaving it, first of all we're going to try and change the rules and change the way it works and change the objectives that it has in order to make it something that works for Britain."

Is this a big deal? Well the logic of the Conservative position has always been that advocating an 'in' vote is dependant on achieving reform. Therefore stating the opposite - that no reform might lead to an 'out' is not that much of a revelation - Cameron himself has said a UK exit would be "imaginable". However, the key question is the threshold - how much needs to change for a Tory to vote Yes (In)? And Hammond definitely has a higher threshold than Hague.

Pointing out the obvious may have its advantages. If EU reform is to happen to the extent needed to persuade the British people to stay in the EU, other EU leaders need to understand that it cannot be tokenistic. In that sense, Hammond's appointment sends a clear message both at home and abroad - reform is not just desirable but fundamental to the UK's EU membership.

It will also have political benefits for the Conservatives. Hammond will now see the Conservative's EU policy through to the 2015 election and, assuming they win, attempt to force the actual reform agenda through before taking a leading role in the referendum. Having a figure who has said that reform must be substantial for him to back an 'in' will add credibility to their election campaign and help win back voters who have left to vote for UKIP.

But we think it's fair to say that Hammond is the most eurosceptic Tory Foreign Secretary since Viscount Halifax in 1939.

EU states struggle to find common ground for sanctions on Russia

As we laid out in our Divided We Stand briefing, agreement among the EU 28 on how to respond to Russia's role in the Ukraine crisis is not easy to come by. And if the doorstep remarks of EU Foreign Ministers arriving in Brussels this morning is anything to go by -- that trend won't be changing any time soon.

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague, urged the EU to begin preparation of broader ('Stage Three') economic sanctions saying:

"I hope...we will continue and intensify our preparations for a third tier of sanctions, and other additional sanctions if the circumstances require it."

He was echoed by Lithuania's Foreign Minister, Linas Antanas Linkevičius, who said that Stage Three sanctions were necessary to send a 'clear signal' to Moscow, adding that unrest in Eastern Ukraine was due to "Russian-sponsored insurgency."

Meanwhile, Austrian Foreign Minister, Sebastian Kurz, took completely the opposite line arguing that the red line for Stage Three of sanctions had not been reached.

"We should definitely not, at this point, move to Stage Three [of sanctions]...We are definitely not on Stage Three of economic sanctions, and in my opinion, this is good."

On where the red line would be to step up the EU's response, Kurz argued:

"[The EU agreed that] the third step of sanctions would be unleashed if Russian troops moved into Ukraine...economic sanctions would not just hurt Russia, but they would definitely hurt us too...If we went a stage further on sanctions with every provocation, then we would already be at war."

Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn found himself somewhere between the two, although he remained very cautious on sanctions:

"The referendum has no legal basis so we can’t burn too much energy on this… President Putin clearly spoke out last week that the referenda should be delayed…So we will see. I think Russia is starting to think about what the big problems will be… I think Russia will return from the brink. We will not have the sanctions as the main point today."

Once again then, as Russia essentially endorses the result in the self-rule referendum in Eastern Ukraine, the EU struggles to find a clear line on how, if at all, to respond to recent events.

The EU stands united in the face of Russia - or does it?

So, about Ukraine...

Arriving in Luxembourg this morning to discuss events in Ukraine with his European counterparts, British Foreign Secretary William Hague called for a "clear and united" EU response to Russia's 'escalation' of the crisis.

Hague added:

There is very little doubt -- there can't really be any real doubt -- that this [the unrest in Eastern Ukraine] is something that has been planned and brought about by Russia. The forces involved are well armed; well trained; well equipped; well coordinated and behaving in exactly the same way as what turned out to be Rusian forces behaved in Crimea, before the full Russian military takeover of Crimea.

He added:

I don't think denials of Russian involvement have a shred of credibility.

Meanwhile, Jean Asselborn, the Foreign Minister of Luxembourg, arriving at the same meeting did not seem to get the memo. He said the following:

I cannot actually imagine -- just how the EU could not identify with the men dressed in black in the Maidan -- I cannot imagine that the Russian side identifies with the men in black, with guns and weapons, that are occupying administrative buildings and government buildings in Eastern Ukraine.

He added:

I am still convinced after I heard President Putin, and the Russian Foreign Minister, that the Russians do not want to destabilise East Ukraine and do not want to occupy Eastern Ukraine.

Meanwhile Frans Timmermans, the Dutch Foreign Minister, opted for a more cryptic message, mixing his ducks with horses. Asked if he thought forces in Eastern Ukraine were acting under Russian directions, he replied:

If it looks like a horse, and it acts like a horse, then it is probably a horse -- not a zebra.

As clear as mud.

Europe responds to the Swiss referendum - and it ain't pretty

We suspect the reverberations from the decision in the Swiss referendum to cap the number of EU migrants might be felt for some time (we look at what the long term implications could be for the UK here). The Swiss case is interesting because unlike the debate on migrants from Central and Eastern Europe in the UK, Germany and the Netherlands, it primarily affects citizens of the wealthier member states, primarily Germany, France and Italy. Here are some immediate reactions from around Europe.

The tone from the Berlin has been quite tough with Steffan Seibert, Merkel's spokesperson commenting that:

"The government takes note of the result and respects it but it is also the case, in our view, that it throws up considerable problems... It's in our interest to keep EU-Swiss relations as close as possible."

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) added that "I believe that with this result Switzerland has harmed itself". He also dusted off the classic line so beloved of his predecessor in the post:

"there can be no cherry-picking when it comes to the EU" 

The new FDP leader Christian Linder echoed this sentiment arguing that "The Swiss are taking from the European buffet only that what they want" (which is kind of the point of a buffet). Interestingly however he added that he was "open-minded" about having more referenda in Germany.

Meanwhile Alternative für Deutschland leader Bernd Lucke didn't explicitly argue for capping EU migration although he struck a different tone compared with the established German parties, arguing that:

"Irrespective of the result of the Swiss referendum we can also achieve in Germany an immigration law which is based on qualifications and he ability to integrate while preventing benefits migration... If necessary we could have such referendums [in Germany]."

The least diplomatic response came from Ralf Stegner, leader of the SPD faction in Schleswig-Holstein who took to twitter to describe the Swiss as "crazy".

Die spinnen, die Schweizer!
— Ralf Stegner (@Ralf_Stegner) February 9, 2014

The response in France has also been quite tough with Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius arguing that:

“This is bad news for Europe and the Swiss, because Switzerland will be penalised from withdrawing into itself... There’s a so-called ‘guillotine clause’ establishing that if one of the elements [of the Swiss-EU bilateral deal] is put into question – in this case, the free movement of workers – everything falls down. Therefore, this means we’ll have to renegotiate […] This means we’re going to reconsider our relations with Switzerland.”

Former French PM Fillon (UMP) was commented that:

“It would be totally incomprehensible if Switzerland put a barrier to the access of cross-border workers… On the other hand, that [Switzerland] wants to reduce the overall number of foreigners on its territory is a perfectly natural demand.”

Italy's Foreign Minister Emma Bonino said that:

“The impact [of the Swiss referendum] is undoubtedly very worrying, with regard to both Italy and the other agreements with the EU.” 

Matteo Salvini, the leader of Lega Nord, said:

“Hurrah for Switzerland’s democratic referendum. We’ll propose one in Italy, too.”

However, his fellow party member Roberto Cota – the governor of Piedmont – voiced concern over the future of cross-border workers from his region, claiming that:

“Respect is needed, because we’re talking about honest and regular workers. Together with [Roberto] Maroni [the governor of Lombardy, another senior Lega Nord member] we’ll request a meeting with [Italian Prime Minister Enrico] Letta on this issue as soon as possible.”

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague was quite restrained, commenting that he did not want to prejudge the results of the negotiations, adding that:

"We will be mindful of the position of 40,000 British nationals who work in Switzerland".

Irish foreign minister Eamon Gilmore warned that “We are seeing signs of the rise of the far-right in Europe” while the Luxembourgian foreign minister Jean Asselborn has been the most outspoken, claiming that the vote has put the Swiss in “good company” with people such as Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French Front National.

There have also been some strong responses coming out of Brussels with EU Commission spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen commenting that:

"The message is clear today: free movement of people is a sacred right for the EU... This will clearly have implications for the rest of the agreements [with Switzerland]."

EU Justice Commissioner Viviane Reding, never knowingly understated, argued that "the single market is not a Swiss cheese. You cannot have a single market with holes in it" which is a silly statement given that the Swiss trading relationship actually is a bit like a Swiss cheese, with patchy market access in services, for example.

The response from MEPs is also interesting as they might have a say in the negotiations (although this is a bit of a grey area). While EP President Martin Schulz was relatively restrained, other senior MEPs were quick to stick the boot in.

Disappointing Swiss referendum will lead to disadvantages for CH in new negotiations with EU. #abst14 #CHvote
— Hannes Swoboda (@Hannes_Swoboda) February 9, 2014

So a lot of posturing. These negotiations will be very, very interesting...

All hail Angela Merkel – No 10 goes all out for the Chancellor

Painting in the Royal Gallery - the Duke of Wellington with Field Marshal Blucher at the Battle of Waterloo - harking back to an earlier age of Anglo-German cooperation.

Angela Merkel will visit London on 27th February, in what will be, no doubt, a much hyped affair. Though the details are yet to be confirmed, in addition to meeting David Cameron and the Queen, Merkel could also “be given the rare privilege” – as the Telegraph’s Chris Hope put it – of addressing both Houses of Parliament at the Royal Gallery, perhaps in an attempt to rekindle the spirit of the early 19th Century when Anglo-German cooperation was the norm (see painting).

 

The last head of government to address the Royal Gallery was apparently Nicolas Sarkozy – then French President – in 2008. We suspect that for Merkel this is more a case of “business as usual” rather than “privilege” but in any case, it’s significant.

There’s no doubt that the Tory leadership hopes for encouraging signs from the Chancellor, following Francois Hollande’s predictable comments last week that EU treaty change “is not a priority” (which nonetheless generated headlines). Far worse for Cameron et al was that the German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier proved such hard work when he was here on Monday – holding a rather awkward press conference alongside William Hague, which included some tempered language on Treaty change (which even came close to contradicting the German Coalition agreement).

As we’ve noted before, the German Grand Coalition isn’t a deal-breaker for Cameron’s plans but it does mean a lot more work. In contrast to the Steinmeier visit, which was barely publicised (most lobby journalists - the parliamentary correspondents who often set the agenda in UK press - were unaware of the meeting instead basing their write-ups on the news wires, which arguably triggered even worse headlines for Hague / Cameron), the Government will go all out for Merkel.

As we’ve argued since the start, Merkel holds the key to a new settlement in Europe, so No 10 is right to step it up. However, at the same time, it must be wary of not being seen as desperate – Merkel is by far the most important leader in Europe, and the big Europe questions are decided by the Kanzleramt and even the Finanzministerium, not the Auswärtiges Amt. Nevertheless, the strategy cannot entirely rest on Merkel, also keeping in mind that this is her last term, with her potentially getting weaker closer to the end.

Merkel’s visit will mark the start of a fresh attempt by No 10 to court EU leaders (read: explain to Europe what in the world Britain actually wants to achieve apart from creating emergency headlines to appease backbenchers). It won’t be a day too early. 

Day 1 of the #EUReform conference: All about substance

Day one of the Open Europe / Fresh Start #EUreform conference covered an enormous amount of ground - kicking off with UK Chancellor George Osborne's widely cited "reform or decline" speech.

300 reformers eager to get on with it, and it was all about substance.

Below are some pictures from the first day.

The Rt Hon. George Osborne giving the opening keynote speech

Reform Lesson from Central and Eastern Europe: Open Europe Berlin's Nora Hesse, Bulgaria's Foreign Minister Kristian Vigenin, Estonia's Foreign Minister Urmas Paet, and former Slovakian PM Iveta Radičová

The Fresh Start MPs giving a press conference 

The breakout sessions discussed a range of ideas for how to make the EU more competitive. 

The Rt Hon. William Hague addressing the "Reformers' Reception" in the evening 

William Hague talking to a group of Swedish MPs