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Friday, June 13, 2008

Referendum liveblog


We are going to try keep this open all day, emulating the redoubtable Richard North over at EUreferendum who is doing the same thing but doubtless doing it better.

Rumours swirl.

The euro dropped like a stricken plane after Reuters put round rumours fromt he "unofficial counts that are supposedly going on all over the place. Lots of wire copy going bananas.

Two things

Paddy power paid out on a yes last night, according to AP.

AP now saying that "Early signs point to Irish rejection of European Union treaty" off the back of rumours about unofficial counts... but all just all rumours for now.


Ohmygod whats going on?

Various Irish journos say tallies are "massive" no?

Irish Times say early counts "lean towards no"

But RTE saying picture is mixed

Our view: if they can't win convincingly even in the most pro-euro country in europe then they really are in trouble in the long term.


We just got back a new ICM poll of 1000 voters in the UK which we commissioned - on what woudld happen if there were a referndum in the UK. It woudl be a two-to-one no vote.

"If a referendum were being held in Britain, would you vote for or against the new Lisbon Treaty?"

51 No
28 Yes
20 Don't know

Full tables are here

Win or lose we say - "now give us a referednum in Britain"


Richard North says

"Looking good! And more ... and even more. Some were suggesting 60-40 to the "no" campaign, but it is looking firmer - see new updates below. The first official results from the 43 constituencies will start to come through shortly. Full results expected at 3-3.30 (BST)."


RTE now say

"Complete tallies are available from around half the constituencies - although they come with a strong warning that some of them may not be all that accurate.

Judging by those tallies, middle class constituencies like Dublin South, Dublin South East and Dún Laoghaire seem like to have a 60-40 vote in favour of Lisbon.

However the No vote is said to be ahead in Dublin North West, Dublin Central, Cork North Central and South Central, both Kerry constituencies, both Tipperary constituencies, and Galway West."


Garret Fitzgerald calling it a 55% for no

Do we trust him? No.

AP say "I do not see how we're going to claw back our position based on the numbers I'm seeing. It's going pretty much all the way of the 'no' camp," said Pat Rabbitte, former leader of the opposition Labour Party.


AFP report

Early indications Friday of results from Ireland's crunch EU referendum are "not looking good" for the "yes" campaign, Europe Minister Dick Roche told Agence France-Presse. "From what I hear it is not looking good," he said after the RTE state broadcaster reported that the "yes" vote's support was "in difficulty

David Rennie's thoughts - mainly about Cowen's position in the event of a no.

Finally some more (unofficial) numbers from MarketNews International

In two areas, Mayo (electorate 95250) and Galway East (electorate 80569), the yes camp has already conceded defeat.

In Dublin South-West, there is a report 60 per cent - 40 per cent split in favour of the No side, and this 60:40 tally is repeated in Dublin North-West, Dublin Central, and Dublin North-East.

Elsewhere in the country, tallies from Limerick West indicate a 59 per cent No vote and a 41 Yes vote.

Tipperary South tallies show 50.3 per cent Yes and 49.7 per cent No vote, while Tipperary North tallies indicate a 50:50 split.

Initial tally figures from Sligo-Leitrim suggest a 66 per cent No vote, Roscommon-South Leitrim indicates a 55 per cent No vote, while Donegal South-West (55 per cent No) and Donegal North-East (63 per cent No) are also showing an anti-Lisbon trend.

In Louth, the tally split was reported to be a 57 per cent - 43 per cent in favour of No. In Meath West and East, the split shows a 60-40 percentage advantage to the No side.

Both Kildare constituencies appear to be bucking the trend, however, with early tallies indicating a 57 per cent - 43 per cent vote in favour of Lisbon.



Mark Mardell reports that the no are winning on News 24.

He says Brown phoned Sarkozy to say that he would press ahead with ratification in the event of a NO. That would be total madness - surely? But lets not count chickens here - still think its going to be a yes.


According to http://www.referendum.ie/home/, with 16.74% of the votes counted, the No side is at 53.63% and the Yes side at 46.37%.

Call from Libertas, the Irish No campaign, a bit back.

Q: “Have you definitely won?”

A: “Absolutely”

Meanwhile, Neil has done an interview with former Europe Minister Denis MacShane on the Simon Mayo show on Radio Five Live. He is literally shaking with rage and stormed out of the studio before the end of the interview...

Dan Hannan says “the Noes have it, and have it convincingly.”


Official results at 4.

RTE say:

With results in from 28 of the 43 constituencies, the Lisbon Treaty is being beaten by a margin of 53.6% to 46.4%.

That margin is expected to tighten as more results are announced, but the result is not in doubt.

Neil has written some thoughts on what it all means for the speecie.


(THE HAGUE) - The Netherlands, which rejected the EU constitution three years ago, will continue ratifying the Lisbon treaty despite its apparent rejection by Ireland, Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende said Friday.

Appalling. Their own people said no by 63%

The BBC are asking how the no campaign were able to so successfully "scaremonger." Their coverage all day apart from Mardell has been extremely iffy.


Barroso said:

"The treaty is not dead"

"18 member states have already approved the Treaty... we should go on with the process."

Jackie Davis from the EPC on the BBC:

Barroso's words "reflect the view all across Europe". Presumably not in Ireland.


Czech PM Mirek Topolanek says:

"The rejection of Lisbon Treaty presents a political complication. However the European Union does have a stable legal basis, which enables the Union to continue its functioning in a standard way."

"The consequences of the ‘no’ vote and further proceeding should be discussed at the upcoming European Council meeting. I do not consider Irish vote to be less valid than the French and Dutch vote."

"The Czech Republic will continue preparing itself for the EU Presidency in the first half of 2009 as we have - from the very beginning - reckoned with both possible outcomes of the ratification process."


Final result

NO 862,145
YES 752,451


The hopeless Denis MacShane claimed on News 24 that the Treaty was defeated by Gerry Adams and the Socialist Workers Party. He has finally turned into Comical Ali.

Various Libertas people spoke next. They say they want a more democratic, more transparent Europe with less waste. Not quite what mcshameless was saying.


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Has anyone got a recording of McShane on Mayo - I'd love to hear that oaf makeing a real fool of himself! Unfortunately it is not on the 5Live website.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

dont drink champagne, drink guiness

Geraldine said...

Today is the best day of my life. I will wake up tomorrow knowing that we are still an Irish 'Free State' - a freedom that our Irish Ancestors died for.

I am over the moon with the result :) I'm so proud to be Irish.

We showed the EU fat cats, the German and French Ministers that we do have guts and they could threaten us all they liked, but they werent going to make us say yes just because of their threats. Who do they think they are threatening us to vote yes - it was absolutely shocking!!

I did vote no and I knew months ago that I was voting no. I'm just an ordinary Irish person, I dont support any activitst group who were campaigning for a no vote.

Why did I vote no??

So that my country would continue to be a free state.

That we would remain neutral. We have always been a neutral country and do not like the idea of a EU military.

I voted no because we would only have a commissioner every 5 years. Just because we are a small country doesnt mean we dont have the right to have a Commissioner every year.

I voted no so that we wouldnt be told what to change our taxes to so that they fall inline with the EU.

I voted no so that our salaries would not be reduced.

I voted no for 480 million europeans who werent given a voice and who I believe have a right to a referendum.

Most of all I voted no because the EU fat cats told my governement not to let it be known to the Irish public the sensitivies of the treaty until the result was in. Basically, what we were told about the treaty was only half the truth in order to get us to vote yes and only afterwards, when it would be too late, would we know the full story.

Even if I were going to vote yes, the amount of threats from our government as well as other Ministers from other EU countries would have made me vote no. We were constantly been threated to vote yes or else.... How dare they! Do they not know the meaning of democracy. Maybe its because of the threats that they lost so they can blame themselves.

Ireland will not be a scapegoat for the same treaty that was rejected by the French and Dutch in 2095.

One thing I will say is that we are not anti Eu and we are grateful for what the EU has done for us be we do not agree with certain things in the treaty. Until they come back and can prove without a doubt that these things wont happen, the answer will still be no.

No means No Barroso!!! The people have spoken!!!

Anonymous said...

I'm English-born of Irish parentage - and I've never been so proud to be Irish. A massive blow for freedom was struck today - the freedom of the common man against the isolated, arrogant elites of politics, the media and the corporate world.

Anonymous said...

I hate commments from people who claim to have saved somebody's freedom - without actually having taking the pains to inform themselves about the treaty - which I have. If you had, you would have understood that the very idea of the Lisbon treaty is to bring more power to the directly elected European parliament. Europe is a delicate balance of 27 national interests- and for the Irish who have benefitted outrageously from EU
membership to fall for simplified misleading arguments is a disgrace to the idea of Europe as a community based on common values. Ireland's economic prosperity was mainly brought about by the common market and direct subsidies (55 billion Euros since 1973). It has helped solved the bloody conflict with Ulster by making the south stronger and more attractive. The Lisbon Treaty also offers each country the opportunity to opt out - if you have so many reservations about Europe, this may be the way to go for Ireland. Stop picking the raisins out of the cake and refusing to eat the rest.

Anonymous said...

For Anonymous Continent.

May I point out that the Irish people are very intelligent people and we did read documentation on the Lisbon Treaty. It was sent to us in post by our Government and I also read it. It was also the reason the Referendum Commission was set up so we were given alot of information on it. Its getting a bit boring to hear people saying that we didnt read it. Please do not insult our intelligence.

The Lisbon Treaty would bring more power to the super powers like France and Germany but not to the small countries. Not one person I talked to liked the idea of us not having a commissioner, myself included and people in Ireland had a huge concern that we would only have a commissioner every 5 years.

I was just waiting for it to be brought up and you didnt fail me. Yes, Europe helped us out but this has nothing to do with the Lisbon Treaty.

Yet again you insult us by saying we fell for misleading arguments. The Yes and No campaigns have a right to get their message across. Along with the information we were given on the Treaty, we are intelligent and can make up our minds in an intelligent way. I have to thank you for making me laugh all over again with your silly remark.

I have a number of friends in Europe from different countries and they told me after our result was in that they dont want the treaty either and from the sounds of it, neither does the Czech Republic President. I really loved his comment.

Lets not forget that the French and Dutch rejected the treaty also so dont make Ireland the Scapegoat.

The people have spoken, no means no. Now our Government has to find a way of addressing our concerns.

I will let you in on a secret. The people of the Republic of Ireland had more knowledge on the Lisbon Treaty than our own Taoiseach who admitted, he didnt know what was in the document.

I will also say that the French and German Ministers had no right sticking their noses into our business and trying to threaten us into voting yes. I wouldnt be surprised if there were a couple of people who voted no because of that so if anyone is to blame, its the French and German Ministers for trying to threaten us in something they had no right to do. Let them worry about their own countries but they obviously need to go back to school to be thought what democracy means.


Anonymous said...

For Geraldine;
I am glad I was able to entertain you. The arguments your front-line no-campaigners were distributing on their website (www.libertas.org) are leading people astray and resort to outdated prejudice.
They misleadingly maintain:
1. The Lisbon Treaty creates an unelected President..
Answer: The President of the Council would be elected by the heads of 27 governments that have been elected themselves by a qualified majority. This is the very idea of representation.
2. Halves Ireland’s voting weight while doubling Germany’s
Answer: Some notion of proportionality has to be included in a democracy. Remember the very basic idea of democracy is one person one vote. Even if Germany had 17% of the voting weight in the council, it would take 55% of all states and 65% of the population to be represented to arrive at a decision. There is quite a gap between 17% and 65% - and 55% of all states (with one vote per state – no matter whether you represent a few or many) makes it impossible for the “bigggies” to unite and decide against the interest of smaller states.
3. Abolishes Ireland’s Commissioner for five years at a time
Answer: This is true for every single country of the EU – experts, no matter where they come from, should staff the commission. But then again - why not have a commission as big as say the government of Kenia which manages to waste money on 40 ministers in the cabinet.
We could go on: but at the very heart of our disagreement is the lack of European identity that is easily discernible in you lines. Let me quote you: “Europe helped us” or “ the French and German Ministers for trying to threaten us“ In short: them and us; this way we will never get anywhere together. In the European parliament MPs sit together in groups according to their shared political beliefs not their country of origin. This is the way to go.
What a manipulative joke from your front-line no-campaigners to call themselves “libertas” – Latin is the very cradle of European culture – not Irish but European.

Low Cost said...

All this was very very important..